- Lead
- 55,893
- Total
- 90,217
- vs nation
- D+63.4
Massachusetts Norfolk and Middlesex District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 65,613
- Total
- 97,739
- vs nation
- D+62.7
- Lead
- 57,476
- Total
- 92,367
- vs nation
- D+60.1
- Lead
- 47,542
- Total
- 82,728
- vs nation
- D+53.6
- Lead
- 48,512
- Total
- 81,722
- vs nation
- D+52.1
- Lead
- 47,382
- Total
- 78,361
- vs nation
- D+62.9
- Lead
- 45,372
- Total
- 75,963
- vs nation
- D+59.2
- Lead
- 45,424
- Total
- 73,162
- vs nation
- D+53.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+62.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 181,6642024 5-year
- Population density
- 5,250 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 34.6 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $175,8892024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 68.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+75.3 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+18.7 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Third Middlesex District, MA · twin score 96.4
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts Norfolk and Middlesex District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
87.5%
60,373 votes · D+75.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 82.6%
Republican
William McKinley1896
55.0%
2,783 votes · R+18.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 53.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
80,693votes
82.6% of the vote · D+67.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 71,651 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
20,389votes
42.6% of the vote · D+14.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 19,809 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
George McGovern1972
+71.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+48.4 · U.S. R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +63.4 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+12.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+18.7 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · −6.0 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 89.6%67,927 | 10.4%7,848 | 75,775 |
| 2020 | D | 82.2%69,534 | 17.8%15,086 | 84,620 |
This district delivered a 62.0-point Democratic presidential margin in 2024, placing it among the most heavily one-sided state senate seats in the commonwealth and leaving general-election outcomes largely settled before votes are counted.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 75.3 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 18.7 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 5.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 62.0 points.
A population of 181,664, a 69% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $175,889 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Third Middlesex District and Second Middlesex District.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts Norfolk and Middlesex District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/25D17/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.