- Lead
- 3,359
- Total
- 40,355
- vs nation
- R+6.9
Virginia 49th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 2,088
- Total
- 42,418
- vs nation
- R+9.4
- Lead
- 2,506
- Total
- 40,245
- vs nation
- R+8.3
- Lead
- 713
- Total
- 40,912
- vs nation
- R+2.1
- Lead
- 875
- Total
- 41,567
- vs nation
- R+5.2
- Lead
- 4,446
- Total
- 37,453
- vs nation
- R+9.4
- Lead
- 5,272
- Total
- 35,204
- vs nation
- R+15.5
- Lead
- 3,366
- Total
- 34,067
- vs nation
- R+18.4
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+8.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 84,0802024 5-year
- Population density
- 135 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 623 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $49,9112024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 52.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 40.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+76.5 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+47.4 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 173, GA · twin score 89.4
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 49th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
50.7%
21,085 votes · D+2.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 50.3%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
55.4%
20,750 votes · R+11.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 53.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
21,085votes
50.7% of the vote · D+2.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 20,564 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
22,004votes
51.9% of the vote · R+4.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 21,724 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
−2.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+1.7 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · −5.2 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+9.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+11.9 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +9.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
In 2024 it voted Republican by R+8.3, against D+2.1 in 2008, having changed party at least once across the five cycles. Evangelical Protestant adherents were the largest religious group at 44.4% in the 2020 US Religion Census.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 76.5 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 47.4 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.3 points.
A population of 84,080, a 52% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $49,911 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 173 and State House District 48.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 49th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51049/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.