- Lead
- 8,380
- Total
- 34,756
- vs nation
- D+25.6
Virginia 38th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 9,757
- Total
- 35,880
- vs nation
- D+22.7
- Lead
- 6,975
- Total
- 32,835
- vs nation
- D+19.2
- Lead
- 8,378
- Total
- 33,468
- vs nation
- D+21.2
- Lead
- 8,744
- Total
- 33,935
- vs nation
- D+18.5
- Lead
- 2,568
- Total
- 29,853
- vs nation
- D+11.1
- Lead
- 3,399
- Total
- 27,797
- vs nation
- D+11.7
- Lead
- 4,746
- Total
- 26,622
- vs nation
- D+9.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+24.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 87,3412024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,361 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 37 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $53,3522024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 52.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 29.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+61.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+39.3 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 54, AL · twin score 92.8
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
62.5%
22,440 votes · D+27.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 62.4%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
45.1%
13,457 votes · D+8.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 37.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
22,440votes
62.5% of the vote · D+27.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 21,302 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
13,457votes
45.1% of the vote · D+8.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 12,922 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+25.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+24.1 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +22.7 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
−11.1pts R vs U.S.
Place D+8.6 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · −18.5 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 2024 presidential margin of D+24, this Northern Virginia district anchors the Democratic-leaning suburban corridor, where dense residential growth and a highly educated workforce have steadily reinforced its partisan tilt over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 61.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 39.3 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 24.1 points.
A population of 87,341, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $53,352 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 54 and State House District 56.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.