akashic
1876–2024
State House District 40·Texas

Texas 40th State House District peaked at D+83; 2024 delivered R+3.

Dead-even 2024 presidential result marks it as a genuine tossup

1876 — 2024·38 elections
TX
Latest
R+3
in 2024
Archetype
Populist
since the recent cycles
Population
131,399
2024 ACS

Texas 40th State House District, Texas: Populist district. In 2024, voted R+3%. Democratic peak: D+83 in 1912.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+3MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
PopulistAkashic typology
Population
131,3992024 5-year
Median household income
$54,3382024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
27.8%2024 5-year
Black
0.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
91.9%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+83 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+25 in 1952MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
1 counties · 0 D · 1 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−2.9%
15,39716,31632,006
D
+17.1%
18,88513,33632,539
D
+40.2%
17,5027,16625,692
D
+41.7%
14,4325,87320,524
D
+38.7%
13,2975,84419,266
D
+10.1%
9,1887,50316,747
D
+22.8%
9,0435,64214,886
D
+37.6%
8,2993,60012,481
D
+27.5%
7,5433,97412,987
D
+29.9%
8,0034,30812,355
D
+11.4%
6,5035,16511,701
D
+14.1%
5,0883,8029,092
D
+29.0%
5,1592,8288,042
R
−11.0%
2,7063,3766,113
D
+15.2%
2,9592,1295,467
D
+31.2%
3,2571,7034,973
D
+15.5%
2,7492,0084,774
R
−14.9%
1,4441,9553,436
R
−24.6%
1,3632,2543,624
D
+20.6%
1,4039162,360
D
+25.9%
1,0686011,802
D
+21.9%
1,1017051,810
D
+38.0%
9994361,481
D
+52.6%
1,4284371,883
R
−3.0%
5946311,228
D
+54.6%
539147718
D
+36.6%
355163524
D
+66.8%
20138244
D
+83.4%
1776205
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
2.4%
German
1.7%
English
1.1%
Irish
1.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 30.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.5%
85+
0.8%
1.7%
75–84
2.1%
3.0%
65–74
3.6%
4.1%
55–64
4.6%
5.6%
45–54
5.9%
6.1%
35–44
6.1%
7.0%
25–34
6.7%
5.6%
18–24
5.5%
11.8%
5–17
11.4%
4.0%
<5
3.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$54,338
State House District 40 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State House District 40$54,338
Texas$78,476
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
26.7%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1836.4%
Working age (18–64)22.2%
Seniors (65+)23.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
19.9%
speak English only
Spanish78.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.7%
Other Indo-European0.3%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
46.6%
Other Christian
9.9%
Baptist
2.2%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.1%
Methodist
0.7%
Mainline Protestant
0.6%
Non-Christian
0.3%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 38.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Texas House District 40, anchored in the Rio Grande Valley, recorded a zero-point presidential margin in 2024 — a striking shift in a region that once delivered lopsided Democratic margins and now draws serious attention from both parties.

The Democratic margin in Texas 40th State House District peaked at eighty-three points in 1912. By 2024 the district had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was three points, the most Republican-leaning result in the district's modern history.

The economic context is the key. The median household income of $54,338 sits well below state and national norms, and 27% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State House District 40, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/48040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did State House District 40, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, State House District 40, Texas voted Republican by 2.9 points (R+3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 32,006 votes cast, 15,397 went Democratic and 16,316 went Republican.
What is State House District 40, Texas's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State House District 40, Texas as a "Populist" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 24 times, Republican 5 times, and other 0 times.
When did State House District 40, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State House District 40, Texas voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in State House District 40, Texas?
State House District 40, Texas has a population of 131,399 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State House District 40, Texas?
Median household income in State House District 40, Texas is $54,338 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of State House District 40, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in State House District 40, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 24 went Democratic and 5 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.