HarrisDemocratic49.5%23,250TrumpRepublican49.6%23,270OtherAll other candidates0.9%427
R+0.0- Lead
- 20
- Total
- 46,947
- vs nation
- D+1.4
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
Texas 40th State House District
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic60.1%27,292TrumpRepublican39.0%17,709OtherAll other candidates0.9%405
D+21.1- Lead
- 9,583
- Total
- 45,406
- vs nation
- D+16.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic70.5%24,386TrumpRepublican25.5%8,828OtherAll other candidates4.0%1,370
D+45.0- Lead
- 15,558
- Total
- 34,584
- vs nation
- D+42.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic73.5%20,030RomneyRepublican25.6%6,986OtherAll other candidates0.9%241
D+47.9- Lead
- 13,044
- Total
- 27,257
- vs nation
- D+44.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic72.1%18,412McCainRepublican27.1%6,930OtherAll other candidates0.7%187
D+45.0- Lead
- 11,482
- Total
- 25,529
- vs nation
- D+37.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic59.7%12,656BushRepublican39.9%8,459OtherAll other candidates0.3%70
D+19.8- Lead
- 4,197
- Total
- 21,185
- vs nation
- D+22.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic65.6%12,456BushRepublican33.2%6,301OtherAll other candidates1.2%225
D+32.4- Lead
- 6,155
- Total
- 18,982
- vs nation
- D+31.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic70.4%11,411DoleRepublican25.2%4,086OtherAll other candidates4.4%710
D+45.2- Lead
- 7,325
- Total
- 16,207
- vs nation
- D+36.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+0.04MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 185,4552024 5-year
- Population density
- 797 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 233 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $53,5142024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 4.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 92.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+100.0 in 1880MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+15.7 in 1952MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 39, TX · twin score 99.9
presidential history
Party record book
Texas 40th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Grover Cleveland1884
100.0%
62 votes · D+100.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Winfield S. Hancock, 1880 · 100.0%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
57.9%
2,525 votes · R+15.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 52.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
27,292votes
60.1% of the vote · D+21.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 24,386 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
23,270votes
49.6% of the vote · R+0.04 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 17,709 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Alton B. Parker1904
+105.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+85.9 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1908 · +97.8 pts
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
+5.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+15.7 · U.S. R+10.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · −1.4 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
DTerry CanalesState House · 40
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Texas House District 40, anchored in the Rio Grande Valley, recorded a zero-point presidential margin in 2024 — a striking shift in a region that once delivered lopsided Democratic margins and now draws serious attention from both parties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 100.0 points in 1880 and a Republican high of 15.7 points in 1952. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 21.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.0 points.
A population of 185,455, a 5% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $53,514 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 39 and State House District 35.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State House District 39
Texas
99.9twin score
12-yr trend% Latino2012 margin
State House District 35
Texas
98.8twin score
12-yr trend% Latino2008–2012 trajectory
State House District 38
Texas
98.7twin score
12-yr trend% Latino2008–2012 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Texas 40th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/48040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Places within Texas 40th State House District
counties it covers1
Frequently asked questions
How did Texas 40th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Texas 40th State House District voted a near-tie (R+0.04), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 46,947 votes cast, 23,250 went Democratic and 23,270 went Republican.
When did Texas 40th State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Texas 40th State House District voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Texas 40th State House District?
Texas 40th State House District has a population of 185,455 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Texas 40th State House District?
Median household income in Texas 40th State House District is $53,514 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Texas 40th State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Texas 40th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 35 went Democratic and 3 went Republican.