- Lead
- 48,964
- Total
- 83,965
- vs nation
- R+56.8
Texas 21st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 46,515
- Total
- 84,646
- vs nation
- R+59.4
- Lead
- 42,029
- Total
- 74,879
- vs nation
- R+58.2
- Lead
- 35,290
- Total
- 72,769
- vs nation
- R+52.4
- Lead
- 31,452
- Total
- 70,417
- vs nation
- R+51.9
- Lead
- 23,579
- Total
- 73,221
- vs nation
- R+29.7
- Lead
- 17,271
- Total
- 67,921
- vs nation
- R+25.9
- Lead
- 4,258
- Total
- 64,526
- vs nation
- R+15.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+58.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 187,9922024 5-year
- Population density
- 97 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,932 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $73,9172024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 70.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 12.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+78.3 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58.3 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 35, LA · twin score 93.7
presidential history
Party record book
Texas 21st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
89.2%
469 votes · D+78.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 82.3%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
78.8%
66,179 votes · R+58.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 76.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Michael Dukakis1988
34,745votes
51.4% of the vote · D+3.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Walter Mondale, 1984 · 32,756 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
66,179votes
78.8% of the vote · R+58.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 65,058 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
James M. Cox1920
+68.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+42.7 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1916 · +63.0 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+59.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+55.0 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +58.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
The district recorded a Republican presidential margin of R+58.2 in 2024, compared with R+44.7 in 2008. About 312,000 residents lived here, with White alone at 54.4% in the 2024 ACS 5-year.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 78.3 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 58.3 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 58.3 points.
A population of 187,992, a 71% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $73,917 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 35 and State House District 68.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Texas 21st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/48021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.