- Lead
- 18,089
- Total
- 29,232
- vs nation
- R+60.4
Tennessee 10th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 15,794
- Total
- 27,640
- vs nation
- R+61.6
- Lead
- 13,221
- Total
- 22,709
- vs nation
- R+60.3
- Lead
- 9,702
- Total
- 21,618
- vs nation
- R+48.7
- Lead
- 8,645
- Total
- 23,786
- vs nation
- R+43.6
- Lead
- 6,717
- Total
- 23,612
- vs nation
- R+26.0
- Lead
- 3,640
- Total
- 20,538
- vs nation
- R+18.2
- Lead
- 2,002
- Total
- 18,643
- vs nation
- R+19.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+61.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 72,3082024 5-year
- Population density
- 206 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 351 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $52,4272024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 78.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 13.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+10.6 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.9 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 23, TN · twin score 97.8
presidential history
Party record book
Tennessee 10th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
51.5%
2,546 votes · D+4.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · 50.3%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
80.5%
23,546 votes · R+61.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 77.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
8,363votes
35.4% of the vote · R+28.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · 8,267 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
23,546votes
80.5% of the vote · R+61.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 21,544 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+9.1pts D vs U.S.
Place R+16.1 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +1.3 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+61.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+57.1 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +60.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 16.2%4,506 | 83.8%23,240 | 27,746 |
| 2020 | R | 19.2%5,005 | 80.8%21,050 | 26,055 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+61.9, this district ranks among the most heavily one-sided in the state, reflecting a rural or small-town electorate where competitive general elections are rare and primaries often decide outcomes.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 10.6 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 61.9 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 61.9 points.
A population of 72,308, a 79% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $52,427 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 23 and State House District 16.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Tennessee 10th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/47010/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.