- Lead
- 5,131
- Total
- 43,623
- vs nation
- R+10.3
Oregon 31st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 3,654
- Total
- 44,867
- vs nation
- R+12.6
- Lead
- 3,755
- Total
- 37,399
- vs nation
- R+12.1
- Lead
- 914
- Total
- 33,958
- vs nation
- R+6.5
- Lead
- 1,249
- Total
- 34,642
- vs nation
- R+3.7
- Lead
- 2,867
- Total
- 35,417
- vs nation
- R+5.6
- Lead
- 2,157
- Total
- 29,692
- vs nation
- R+7.8
- Lead
- 835
- Total
- 25,647
- vs nation
- R+5.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+11.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 71,2732024 5-year
- Population density
- 64 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,118 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $94,9632024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+42.0 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+65.6 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 51, OR · twin score 87.0
presidential history
Party record book
Oregon 31st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
68.6%
5,917 votes · D+42.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 66.6%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
76.8%
1,470 votes · R+65.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1928 · 68.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
19,762votes
44.0% of the vote · R+8.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 18,401 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
23,532votes
53.9% of the vote · R+11.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 23,416 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
+17.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+42.0 · U.S. D+24.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Adlai Stevenson, 1956 · +12.1 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+46.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+65.6 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William H. Taft, 1908 · +34.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Covering rural terrain in southern Oregon, this district delivered a nearly 11.8-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, placing it among the state's most politically homogeneous constituencies.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 42.0 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 65.6 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.8 points.
A population of 71,273, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $94,963 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 51 and State House District 12.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Oregon 31st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/41031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.