- Lead
- 66
- Total
- 110,227
- vs nation
- D+1.4
New Jersey 38th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 17,195
- Total
- 119,444
- vs nation
- D+9.9
- Lead
- 10,751
- Total
- 101,887
- vs nation
- D+8.5
- Lead
- 8,058
- Total
- 93,000
- vs nation
- D+4.8
- Lead
- 6,664
- Total
- 100,384
- vs nation
- R+0.6
- Lead
- 1,589
- Total
- 96,785
- vs nation
- D+4.1
- Lead
- 9,731
- Total
- 88,499
- vs nation
- D+10.5
- Lead
- 9,872
- Total
- 87,441
- vs nation
- D+2.8
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+0.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 224,6962024 5-year
- Population density
- 5,414 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 41.5 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $127,3472024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 53.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 22.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+17.1 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58.0 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 13, NY · twin score 94.1
presidential history
Party record book
New Jersey 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
58.4%
55,284 votes · D+16.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 56.5%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
77.2%
11,822 votes · R+58.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 76.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
67,458votes
56.5% of the vote · D+14.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 55,284 votes
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
71,083votes
66.7% of the vote · R+34.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 66,809 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
+10.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+11.0 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +9.9 pts
Republican
Thomas E. Dewey1948
+40.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+36.4 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Thomas E. Dewey, 1944 · +40.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 60.0%66,396 | 40.0%44,289 | 110,685 |
| 2018 | D | 63.6%40,179 | 36.4%23,029 | 63,208 |
New Jersey's 38th Assembly District recorded a razor-thin 0.0-point presidential margin in 2024, making it one of the state's most competitive legislative battlegrounds and a reliable barometer of statewide swing.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 17.1 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 58.0 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 14.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.1 points.
A population of 224,696, a 54% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $127,347 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 13 and Assembly District 16.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New Jersey 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/34038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.