HarrisDemocratic18.9%3,672TrumpRepublican79.9%15,494OtherAll other candidates1.1%214
R+61.0- Lead
- 11,822
- Total
- 19,380
- vs nation
- R+59.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
Missouri 128th State House District
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic19.8%3,685TrumpRepublican78.2%14,549OtherAll other candidates2.0%370
R+58.4- Lead
- 10,864
- Total
- 18,604
- vs nation
- R+62.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic20.0%3,392TrumpRepublican75.1%12,736OtherAll other candidates4.9%825
R+55.1- Lead
- 9,344
- Total
- 16,953
- vs nation
- R+57.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic29.8%4,864RomneyRepublican68.0%11,091OtherAll other candidates2.2%354
R+38.2- Lead
- 6,227
- Total
- 16,309
- vs nation
- R+42.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic35.9%6,172McCainRepublican62.8%10,806OtherAll other candidates1.4%237
R+26.9- Lead
- 4,634
- Total
- 17,215
- vs nation
- R+34.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic33.6%5,308BushRepublican65.8%10,401OtherAll other candidates0.7%107
R+32.2- Lead
- 5,093
- Total
- 15,816
- vs nation
- R+29.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic38.3%5,070BushRepublican59.3%7,840OtherAll other candidates2.4%318
R+20.9- Lead
- 2,770
- Total
- 13,228
- vs nation
- R+21.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic39.7%4,680DoleRepublican46.4%5,481OtherAll other candidates13.9%1,639
R+6.8- Lead
- 801
- Total
- 11,800
- vs nation
- R+15.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+61.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 37,2072024 5-year
- Population density
- 46 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 803 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $56,1102024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+4.2 in 1992MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.0 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 142, MO · twin score 98.9
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 128th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
50.9%
3,496 votes · D+2.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 50.6%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
79.9%
15,494 votes · R+61.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 78.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
6,172votes
35.9% of the vote · R+26.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 5,308 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
15,494votes
79.9% of the vote · R+61.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 14,549 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+8.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+2.4 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · +5.8 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+62.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+58.4 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +59.5 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RChris WarwickState House · 128
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 61.0-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, this rural Missouri district sits at the far end of the state's partisan spectrum, reflecting the heavily Republican realignment that has reshaped small-town and agricultural communities statewide.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 4.2 points in 1992 and a Republican high of 61.0 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 61.0 points.
A population of 37,207, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $56,110 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 142 and State House District 57.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State House District 142
Missouri
98.9twin score
2012–2024 trajectory
State House District 57
Missouri
98.3twin score
2012–2024 trajectory
State House District 5
Missouri
98.0twin score
2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Missouri 128th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29128/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Missouri at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within Missouri 128th State House District
counties it covers2
Frequently asked questions
How did Missouri 128th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Missouri 128th State House District voted Republican by 61.0 points (R+61.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 19,380 votes cast, 3,672 went Democratic and 15,494 went Republican.
When did Missouri 128th State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Missouri 128th State House District voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Missouri 128th State House District?
Missouri 128th State House District has a population of 37,207 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Missouri 128th State House District?
Median household income in Missouri 128th State House District is $56,110 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Missouri 128th State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Missouri 128th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 35 went Republican.