- Lead
- 12,153
- Total
- 18,476
- vs nation
- D+67.2
Missouri 86th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 14,169
- Total
- 20,451
- vs nation
- D+64.8
- Lead
- 13,383
- Total
- 19,983
- vs nation
- D+64.9
- Lead
- 13,714
- Total
- 20,096
- vs nation
- D+64.4
- Lead
- 15,777
- Total
- 22,085
- vs nation
- D+64.2
- Lead
- 13,319
- Total
- 20,174
- vs nation
- D+68.5
- Lead
- 11,078
- Total
- 17,741
- vs nation
- D+61.9
- Lead
- 9,988
- Total
- 16,859
- vs nation
- D+50.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+65.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 36,6452024 5-year
- Population density
- 5,910 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 6.2 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $85,1032024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 49.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 35.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+82.1 in 1880MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 24, PA · twin score 96.1
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 86th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Winfield S. Hancock1880
91.0%
203 votes · D+82.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Grover Cleveland, 1884 · 88.7%
Republican
George H. W. Bush1988
23.0%
3,660 votes · D+53.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · 17.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
18,839votes
85.3% of the vote · D+71.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 17,172 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
4,257votes
14.4% of the vote · D+18.7 · a third-party candidate carried the Place · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 3,671 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
+68.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+66.0 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +67.2 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1912
−14.1pts R vs U.S.
Place D+33.7 · U.S. D+19.5 · a third-party candidate carried the Place · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · −14.9 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 58.7%11,365 | 41.3%8,010 | 19,375 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of D+65.8, this district ranks among the most one-sided in the state, reflecting the dense urban concentration typical of Missouri's heavily Democratic inner-city precincts.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 82.1 points in 1880. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 65.8 points.
A population of 36,645, a 49% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $85,103 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 24 and State House District 59B.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Missouri 86th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29086/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.