- Lead
- 12,214
- Total
- 61,445
- vs nation
- R+18.4
Michigan 51st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 11,246
- Total
- 59,767
- vs nation
- R+23.3
- Lead
- 13,891
- Total
- 50,887
- vs nation
- R+29.4
- Lead
- 14,448
- Total
- 49,383
- vs nation
- R+33.1
- Lead
- 11,112
- Total
- 48,662
- vs nation
- R+30.1
- Lead
- 17,947
- Total
- 50,081
- vs nation
- R+33.4
- Lead
- 15,349
- Total
- 44,478
- vs nation
- R+35.0
- Lead
- 11,470
- Total
- 39,353
- vs nation
- R+37.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+19.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 91,5072024 5-year
- Population density
- 713 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 128 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $101,6432024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Republican margin
- R+83.2 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 52, MI · twin score 98.8
presidential history
Party record book
Michigan 51st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
42.4%
9,000 votes · R+14.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 39.8%
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
91.2%
4,843 votes · R+83.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · 86.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
24,179votes
39.4% of the vote · R+19.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 23,811 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
36,393votes
59.2% of the vote · R+19.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 35,057 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
−18.4pts D vs U.S.
Place R+19.9 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · −23.3 pts
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
+65.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+83.2 · U.S. R+17.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · +56.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 55.4%28,926 | 44.6%23,318 | 52,244 |
| 2020 | D | 57.5%30,354 | 42.5%22,432 | 52,786 |
Michigan 51st State House District sits in the Great Lakes. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 83.2 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 19.9 points.
A population of 91,507, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $101,643 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 52 and State House District 66.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Michigan 51st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/26051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.