- Lead
- 11,521
- Total
- 30,077
- vs nation
- D+39.8
Massachusetts 4th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 12,025
- Total
- 30,356
- vs nation
- D+35.2
- Lead
- 7,695
- Total
- 27,838
- vs nation
- D+25.6
- Lead
- 6,206
- Total
- 26,383
- vs nation
- D+19.7
- Lead
- 7,882
- Total
- 26,768
- vs nation
- D+22.2
- Lead
- 6,908
- Total
- 26,514
- vs nation
- D+28.5
- Lead
- 6,065
- Total
- 24,405
- vs nation
- D+24.3
- Lead
- 6,813
- Total
- 22,638
- vs nation
- D+21.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+38.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 41,1982024 5-year
- Population density
- 356 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 116 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $96,0042024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+39.6 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+69.6 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 1st Barnstable District, MA · twin score 97.2
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 4th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
68.7%
20,851 votes · D+39.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 67.9%
Republican
William McKinley1896
81.1%
719 votes · R+69.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · 78.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
20,851votes
68.7% of the vote · D+39.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 20,423 votes
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
9,878votes
37.4% of the vote · D+23.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 9,603 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+39.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+38.3 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +35.2 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+63.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+69.6 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · +49.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 60.8%15,727 | 39.2%10,121 | 25,848 |
| 2020 | D | 65.3%16,626 | 34.7%8,848 | 25,474 |
The 4th Barnstable District covers a slice of Cape Cod where a D+38.3 presidential margin in 2024 places it among Massachusetts's more reliably Democratic state house seats, reflecting the region's college-educated and retirement-age demographic mix.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 39.6 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 69.6 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 38.3 points.
A population of 41,198, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $96,004 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 1st Barnstable District and 3rd Barnstable District.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 4th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25004/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.