- Lead
- 594
- Total
- 99,165
- vs nation
- D+0.9
Florida 45th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 5,118
- Total
- 93,240
- vs nation
- D+1.0
- Lead
- 427
- Total
- 63,937
- vs nation
- R+2.8
- Lead
- 3,941
- Total
- 54,746
- vs nation
- R+11.1
- Lead
- 4,278
- Total
- 53,743
- vs nation
- R+15.2
- Lead
- 12,738
- Total
- 47,377
- vs nation
- R+24.4
- Lead
- 8,068
- Total
- 33,476
- vs nation
- R+24.6
- Lead
- 6,493
- Total
- 27,908
- vs nation
- R+31.8
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+0.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 175,9732024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,129 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 156 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $112,1812024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 55.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 21.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+87.0 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+75.0 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 39, FL · twin score 89.6
presidential history
Party record book
Florida 45th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2000–2024 · 7 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
52.3%
48,741 votes · D+5.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 49.0%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
63.2%
29,939 votes · R+26.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · 61.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
48,741votes
52.3% of the vote · D+5.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 48,560 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
49,154votes
49.6% of the vote · R+0.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 43,623 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+1.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+5.5 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +0.9 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2000
+24.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+24.1 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · +24.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
The district recorded a Republican presidential margin of R+0.6 in 2024 and R+8.0 in 2008, switching sides at least once in between. No racial group formed a majority of its residents in the 2024 ACS 5-year, with White residents at 41.7%.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 87.0 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 75.0 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.6 points.
A population of 175,973, a 55% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $112,181 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 39 and State House District 42.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Florida 45th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/12045/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.