- Lead
- 1,477
- Total
- 91,605
- vs nation
- D+3.1
Florida 38th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 7,593
- Total
- 97,142
- vs nation
- D+3.4
- Lead
- 2,162
- Total
- 83,613
- vs nation
- D+0.5
- Lead
- 1,692
- Total
- 77,450
- vs nation
- R+6.0
- Lead
- 1,166
- Total
- 76,469
- vs nation
- R+5.7
- Lead
- 8,556
- Total
- 68,660
- vs nation
- R+10.0
- Lead
- 3,982
- Total
- 50,982
- vs nation
- R+8.3
- Lead
- 3,756
- Total
- 42,526
- vs nation
- R+17.4
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+1.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 175,4422024 5-year
- Population density
- 3,523 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 49.8 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $74,3992024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 55.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 26.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+56.6 in 1916MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58.5 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 36, FL · twin score 93.5
presidential history
Party record book
Florida 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2000–2024 · 7 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
53.4%
51,829 votes · D+7.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 50.3%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
55.9%
38,405 votes · R+12.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · 52.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
51,829votes
53.4% of the vote · D+7.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 46,046 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
44,569votes
48.7% of the vote · D+1.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 44,236 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+3.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+7.8 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +3.1 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+10.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+12.5 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · +8.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
With a 2024 presidential margin of just 1.6 points Democratic, this district sits at the competitive edge of Florida's legislative map, making it a consistent target for both parties in state house contests.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 56.6 points in 1916 and a Republican high of 58.5 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.6 points.
A population of 175,442, a 55% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,399 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 36 and State House District 39.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Florida 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/12038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.