Florida 38th State House District, Florida: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+4%. Republican peak: R+62 in 1972.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+4MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 73,5592024 5-year
- Median household income
- $85,7612024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 59.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 11.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 23.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+55 in 1916MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+62 in 1972MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for State House District 38, FLOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 18,433 | 19,816 | 38,748 | ||
| D | 20,248 | 19,134 | 39,847 | ||
| R | 16,182 | 16,721 | 34,360 | ||
| R | 14,735 | 16,797 | 31,873 | ||
| R | 15,176 | 16,053 | 31,457 | ||
| R | 11,760 | 16,527 | 28,447 | ||
| R | 9,049 | 11,579 | 21,054 | ||
| R | 6,884 | 9,136 | 17,555 | ||
| R | 5,448 | 8,724 | 17,961 | ||
| R | 3,458 | 9,228 | 12,781 | ||
| R | 2,719 | 8,593 | 11,320 | ||
| R | 2,665 | 6,110 | 9,234 | ||
| R | 2,996 | 4,072 | 7,152 | ||
| R | 994 | 4,226 | 5,227 | ||
| R | 935 | 1,653 | 3,700 | ||
| R | 1,394 | 1,540 | 2,934 | ||
| R | 747 | 1,365 | 2,112 | ||
| R | 477 | 892 | 1,370 | ||
| R | 477 | 715 | 1,192 | ||
| D | 345 | 254 | 765 | ||
| D | 449 | 207 | 656 | ||
| D | 481 | 209 | 690 | ||
| D | 394 | 137 | 531 | ||
| D | 327 | 145 | 472 | ||
| R | 181 | 273 | 464 | ||
| D | 144 | 57 | 242 | ||
| D | 227 | 117 | 363 | ||
| D | 108 | 24 | 152 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
11.4%
German
10.8%
Irish
10.0%
English
9.7%
Italian
6.2%
Polish
2.4%
French
2.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$85,761
State House District 38 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State House District 38$85,761
Florida$74,568
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
9.0%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 189.4%
Working age (18–64)8.8%
Seniors (65+)10.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
76.9%
speak English only
Spanish15.5%
Other Indo-European4.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.6%
Other languages0.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 46.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
With a 2024 presidential margin of just 1.6 points Democratic, this district sits at the competitive edge of Florida's legislative map, making it a consistent target for both parties in state house contests.
The Democratic margin in Florida 38th State House District has rarely exceeded fifty-five points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded sixty-two points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by four points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 59% non-Hispanic-white share, a 9% poverty rate, and a median household income of $85,761 — all within the broad national range.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State House District 38, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/12038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did State House District 38, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, State House District 38, Florida voted Republican by 3.6 points (R+4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 38,748 votes cast, 18,433 went Democratic and 19,816 went Republican.
What is State House District 38, Florida's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State House District 38, Florida as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 9 times, Republican 19 times, and other 0 times.
When did State House District 38, Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State House District 38, Florida voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in State House District 38, Florida?
State House District 38, Florida has a population of 73,559 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State House District 38, Florida?
Median household income in State House District 38, Florida is $85,761 — above the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of State House District 38, Florida?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in State House District 38, Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 9 went Democratic and 19 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.