- Lead
- 1,591
- Total
- 8,004
- vs nation
- D+21.3
Connecticut 49th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 2,539
- Total
- 8,331
- vs nation
- D+26.0
- Lead
- 2,813
- Total
- 8,389
- vs nation
- D+31.4
- Lead
- 4,409
- Total
- 8,509
- vs nation
- D+48.0
- Lead
- 4,919
- Total
- 9,431
- vs nation
- D+44.9
- Lead
- 4,062
- Total
- 8,774
- vs nation
- D+48.8
- Lead
- 4,268
- Total
- 8,048
- vs nation
- D+52.5
- Lead
- 4,120
- Total
- 7,867
- vs nation
- D+43.8
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+19.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 24,4252024 5-year
- Population density
- 911 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 26.8 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $55,7362024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 47.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 41.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+74.5 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+4.2 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 25, CT · twin score 93.7
presidential history
Party record book
Connecticut 49th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
87.2%
6,224 votes · D+74.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 76.4%
Republican
William McKinley1896
50.1%
548 votes · R+4.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · 42.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
7,058votes
74.8% of the vote · D+52.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 6,386 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
3,119votes
39.0% of the vote · D+19.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 2,817 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Smith1928
+57.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+40.0 · U.S. R+17.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George McGovern, 1972 · +53.1 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
−1.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+4.2 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William H. Taft, 1912 · −11.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | D | 57.9%4,646 | 42.1%3,375 | 8,021 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of nearly D+20, this district consistently delivers lopsided results, reflecting the dense, urban-leaning demographics typical of Connecticut's smaller city neighborhoods.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 74.5 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 4.2 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 10.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 19.9 points.
A population of 24,425, a 47% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,736 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 25 and State House District 24.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Connecticut 49th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/09049/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.