- Lead
- 120
- Total
- 15,165
- vs nation
- D+2.3
Connecticut 48th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 604
- Total
- 15,324
- vs nation
- R+0.5
- Lead
- 980
- Total
- 13,586
- vs nation
- R+9.3
- Lead
- 477
- Total
- 12,362
- vs nation
- Even
- Lead
- 897
- Total
- 13,345
- vs nation
- R+0.6
- Lead
- 84
- Total
- 12,769
- vs nation
- D+1.8
- Lead
- 505
- Total
- 11,818
- vs nation
- D+3.8
- Lead
- 923
- Total
- 11,217
- vs nation
- R+0.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+0.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 24,4072024 5-year
- Population density
- 200 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 122 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $114,7692024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+24.9 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+44.2 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 8, CT · twin score 97.1
presidential history
Party record book
Connecticut 48th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
62.4%
5,128 votes · D+24.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 52.6%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
69.9%
7,412 votes · R+40.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 69.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
7,779votes
50.8% of the vote · D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 7,513 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
7,973votes
68.2% of the vote · R+36.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 7,412 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
+3.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+4.3 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · +2.3 pts
Republican
Herbert Hoover1932
+32.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+14.6 · U.S. D+17.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · +32.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 63.3%6,596 | 36.7%3,824 | 10,420 |
| 2018 | D | 66.2%5,860 | 33.8%2,987 | 8,847 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of just 0.8 points, this 24,000-resident district sits at the competitive edge of Connecticut's legislative map, making it a consistent target for both parties in state house contests.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 24.9 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 44.2 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.8 points.
A population of 24,407, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $114,769 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 8 and State House District 34.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Connecticut 48th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/09048/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.