- Lead
- 1,224
- Total
- 14,367
- vs nation
- D+10.0
Connecticut 38th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,907
- Total
- 15,139
- vs nation
- D+8.1
- Lead
- 161
- Total
- 13,265
- vs nation
- R+0.9
- Lead
- 1,572
- Total
- 12,321
- vs nation
- D+8.9
- Lead
- 2,078
- Total
- 13,324
- vs nation
- D+8.3
- Lead
- 1,021
- Total
- 12,771
- vs nation
- D+10.5
- Lead
- 1,448
- Total
- 11,663
- vs nation
- D+11.9
- Lead
- 1,776
- Total
- 10,965
- vs nation
- D+7.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+8.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 24,6572024 5-year
- Population density
- 515 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 47.9 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $104,1912024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32.9 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+36.3 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 8, CT · twin score 95.3
presidential history
Party record book
Connecticut 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
66.4%
5,559 votes · D+32.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 57.2%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
66.0%
6,705 votes · R+33.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 65.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
8,354votes
55.2% of the vote · D+12.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 7,678 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
7,231votes
64.3% of the vote · R+29.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 6,705 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
+11.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+12.4 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · +10.5 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+24.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+30.3 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1932 · +23.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 63.3%6,664 | 36.7%3,864 | 10,528 |
| 2018 | D | 66.2%5,920 | 33.8%3,018 | 8,938 |
The 2024 presidential margin was D+8.5, one of the narrower results among Connecticut's state house districts, compared with D+15.6 in 2008. About 19,600 residents lived here, with White alone at 74.5% in the 2024 ACS 5-year.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.9 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 36.3 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.5 points.
A population of 24,657, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $104,191 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 8 and State House District 48.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Connecticut 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/09038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.