- Lead
- 4,750
- Total
- 9,903
- vs nation
- R+46.5
Arkansas 48th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 4,510
- Total
- 10,096
- vs nation
- R+49.1
- Lead
- 4,074
- Total
- 9,085
- vs nation
- R+46.9
- Lead
- 3,300
- Total
- 8,735
- vs nation
- R+41.6
- Lead
- 2,918
- Total
- 8,778
- vs nation
- R+40.5
- Lead
- 1,628
- Total
- 8,902
- vs nation
- R+15.8
- Lead
- 904
- Total
- 7,818
- vs nation
- R+12.1
- Lead
- 731
- Total
- 7,284
- vs nation
- D+1.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+48.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 29,8472024 5-year
- Population density
- 494 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 60.4 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $61,3462024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 68.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 14.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+63.9 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+52.8 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 163, MO · twin score 95.9
presidential history
Party record book
Arkansas 48th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
81.4%
1,488 votes · D+63.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 77.7%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
76.0%
2,819 votes · R+52.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 73.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
3,579votes
40.2% of the vote · R+18.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · 3,545 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
7,231votes
73.0% of the vote · R+48.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 7,170 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+51.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+26.5 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +50.3 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+49.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+44.7 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +46.9 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 18.8%1,814 | 81.2%7,853 | 9,667 |
| 2020 | R | 19.6%1,980 | 80.4%8,130 | 10,110 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+48, this district of roughly 30,000 residents sits firmly outside competitive territory, making candidate quality and primary dynamics far more decisive than general-election outcomes.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 63.9 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 52.8 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.0 points.
A population of 29,847, a 68% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,346 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 163 and State House District 59.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arkansas 48th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/05048/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.