HarrisDemocratic19.3%2,192TrumpRepublican78.6%8,943OtherAll other candidates2.1%236
R+59.4- Lead
- 6,751
- Total
- 11,371
- vs nation
- R+57.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
Arkansas 40th State House District
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic19.5%2,270TrumpRepublican77.5%9,012OtherAll other candidates3.0%351
R+58.0- Lead
- 6,742
- Total
- 11,633
- vs nation
- R+62.4
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic22.0%2,316TrumpRepublican75.4%7,937OtherAll other candidates2.6%271
R+53.4- Lead
- 5,621
- Total
- 10,524
- vs nation
- R+55.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic26.1%2,626RomneyRepublican70.9%7,123OtherAll other candidates3.0%303
R+44.7- Lead
- 4,497
- Total
- 10,052
- vs nation
- R+48.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic29.6%2,950McCainRepublican67.7%6,754OtherAll other candidates2.8%278
R+38.1- Lead
- 3,804
- Total
- 9,982
- vs nation
- R+45.4
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic41.4%4,358BushRepublican57.3%6,037OtherAll other candidates1.3%142
R+15.9- Lead
- 1,679
- Total
- 10,537
- vs nation
- R+13.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic44.2%4,097BushRepublican53.0%4,913OtherAll other candidates2.7%254
R+8.8- Lead
- 816
- Total
- 9,264
- vs nation
- R+9.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic53.5%4,936DoleRepublican35.0%3,225OtherAll other candidates11.5%1,065
D+18.5- Lead
- 1,711
- Total
- 9,226
- vs nation
- D+10.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+59.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 30,0682024 5-year
- Population density
- 71 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 422 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $53,4842024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 82.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+75.8 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+59.4 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 50, OK · twin score 97.8
presidential history
Party record book
Arkansas 40th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
87.7%
1,898 votes · D+75.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · 80.8%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
78.6%
8,943 votes · R+59.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 77.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Jimmy Carter1976
5,611votes
72.2% of the vote · D+44.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · 5,528 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
9,012votes
77.5% of the vote · R+58.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 8,943 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+68.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+62.3 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · +64.7 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+62.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+58.0 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +57.9 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RShad PearceState House · 40
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 17.7%1,910 | 82.3%8,899 | 10,809 |
| 2020 | R | 0.0%0 | 100.0%8,735 | 8,735 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+59.4 across a population of roughly 30,000, this district ranks among the state's most one-sided, suggesting a heavily rural electorate where statewide contests draw little competitive attention.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 75.8 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 59.4 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 59.4 points.
A population of 30,068, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $53,484 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 50 and State House District 33.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State House District 50
Oklahoma
97.8twin score
2008–2024 trajectory% Evangelical≠ median age
State House District 33
Arkansas
97.4twin score
2016–2024 trajectory% Evangelical
State House District 48
Oklahoma
97.2twin score
2008–2020 trajectory% Evangelical
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arkansas 40th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/05040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Arkansas at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within Arkansas 40th State House District
counties it covers3
Frequently asked questions
How did Arkansas 40th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arkansas 40th State House District voted Republican by 59.4 points (R+59.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 11,371 votes cast, 2,192 went Democratic and 8,943 went Republican.
When did Arkansas 40th State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Arkansas 40th State House District voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Arkansas 40th State House District?
Arkansas 40th State House District has a population of 30,068 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arkansas 40th State House District?
Median household income in Arkansas 40th State House District is $53,484 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Arkansas 40th State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Arkansas 40th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 27 went Democratic and 10 went Republican.