Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic28.5%172TrumpRepublican69.7%420OtherAll other candidates1.8%11
R+41.1
Lead
248
Total
603
vs nation
R+39.7
BidenDemocratic29.1%213TrumpRepublican69.4%509OtherAll other candidates1.5%11
R+40.4
Lead
296
Total
733
vs nation
R+44.8
ClintonDemocratic29.4%209TrumpRepublican67.3%479OtherAll other candidates3.4%24
R+37.9
Lead
270
Total
712
vs nation
R+40.0
ObamaDemocratic42.1%318RomneyRepublican56.0%423OtherAll other candidates2.0%15
R+13.9
Lead
105
Total
756
vs nation
R+17.7
ObamaDemocratic55.1%466McCainRepublican42.5%359OtherAll other candidates2.4%20
D+12.7
Lead
107
Total
845
vs nation
D+5.4
KerryDemocratic63.8%611BushRepublican36.0%345OtherAll other candidates0.2%2
D+27.8
Lead
266
Total
958
vs nation
D+30.2
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+41.1MIT Election Lab
Population
3,5072024 5-year
Population density
585 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
6 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$32,9692024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
66.3%2024 5-year
Black
24.2%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
9.0%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+27.8 in 2004MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+41.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
20.3%605 participants ÷ 2,984 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+16.1 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off vs state
-5.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
4.2%–7.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
19.5%
13.5%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
605
2,984 ± 158
20.3%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
394
2,928 ± 186
13.5%
Audited
E/A
731
2,474 ± 614
29.5%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
539
2,769 ± 507
19.5%
Audited
E/D
732
2,550 ± 388
28.7%
Audited
E/D
756
2,036
37.1%
Derived
—
845
1,737
48.6%
Derived
—
958
1,438 extrapolated
66.6%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Welch, WV · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
63.8%
611 votes · D+27.8
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 55.1%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
69.7%
420 votes · R+41.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 69.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
611votes
63.8% of the vote · D+27.8
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 466 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
509votes
69.4% of the vote · R+40.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · 479 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
+30.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+27.8 · U.S. R+2.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · +5.4 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+44.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+40.4 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +40.0 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Welch · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are McDowell County, West Virginia, the county containing Welch — Welch’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Welch, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Welch anchors McDowell County, which has shed more than 90% of its mid-20th-century population as coal employment collapsed, producing one of the most lopsided partisan swings of any county in Appalachia over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 27.8 points in 2004 and a Republican high of 41.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 0.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 41.1 points.
A population of 3,507, a 66% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $32,969 describe the city.
In 2024, Welch, West Virginia voted Republican by 41.1 points (R+41.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 603 votes cast, 172 went Democratic and 420 went Republican.
When did Welch, West Virginia last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Welch, West Virginia voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Welch, West Virginia?
Welch, West Virginia has a population of 3,507 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Welch, West Virginia?
Median household income in Welch, West Virginia is $32,969 — below the national median of $80,734. The West Virginia state median is $59,608.
What is the political history of Welch, West Virginia?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Welch, West Virginia from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 4 went Republican.
