- Lead
- 90,504
- Total
- 186,624
- vs nation
- D+50.0
New York 15th Congressional District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 154,781
- Total
- 219,112
- vs nation
- D+66.2
- Lead
- 172,160
- Total
- 209,944
- vs nation
- D+79.9
- Lead
- 167,878
- Total
- 195,457
- vs nation
- D+82.0
- Lead
- 162,230
- Total
- 199,879
- vs nation
- D+73.9
- Lead
- 126,499
- Total
- 178,155
- vs nation
- D+73.5
- Lead
- 125,852
- Total
- 161,273
- vs nation
- D+77.5
- Lead
- 119,124
- Total
- 151,730
- vs nation
- D+70.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+48.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 777,0022024 5-year
- Population density
- 41,774 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 18.6 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $47,0752024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 9.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 31.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 52.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+100.0 in 1888MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+25.3 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Congressional District 14, NY · twin score 96.6
presidential history
Party record book
New York 15th Congressional District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2020 (partial returns from 1876) · 37 presidential cycles · 33 with a vote-share denominator · 32 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1912
100.0%
1 votes · D+100.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1908 · 100.0%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
52.5%
47,184 votes · R+25.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 40.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
215,314votes
78.0% of the vote · D+56.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 208,279 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
114,603votes
38.4% of the vote · D+23.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 107,663 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Alton B. Parker1904
+119.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+100.0 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1908 · +109.6 pts
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
−0.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+25.3 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Thomas E. Dewey, 1944 · −6.9 pts
Current officeholders
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
New York's 15th congressional district, as drawn for the 2026 elections, takes in parts of Bronx county. About 777,000 people live within its 2026 boundaries, with a median age of 35.5. Measured on those boundaries, the district has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2012, by narrowing margins. The margin was D+85.9 in 2012, D+82.0 in 2016, D+70.6 in 2020, and D+48.5 in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 100.0 points in 1888 and a Republican high of 25.3 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 22.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.5 points.
A population of 777,002, a 9% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $47,075 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 14 and Congressional District 24.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New York 15th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/3615/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.