akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 51·California

California 51st Congressional District changed direction in the last decade — D+17 in 2024.

San Diego's southernmost corridor, anchored by the U.S.–Mexico border

1876 — 2024·38 elections
CA
Latest
D+17
in 2024
Archetype
Recent convert
since the recent cycles
Population
147,606
2024 ACS

California 51st Congressional District, California: Recent convert district. In 2024, voted D+17%. Democratic peak: D+45 in 1912.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+17MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
Recent convertAkashic typology
Population
147,6062024 5-year
Median household income
$106,2682024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
48.4%2024 5-year
Black
4.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
34.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+45 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+43 in 1924MIT Election Lab
D
JACOBS, SaraCongress 119 · Democratic

Predecessors: VARGAS, Juan (2021–2023), VARGAS, Juan (2019–2021), VARGAS, Juan (2017–2019), VARGAS, Juan (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).

2024 results by constituent county
1 counties · 1 D · 0 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+16.8%
37,76226,62766,336
D
+22.8%
43,29526,93371,907
D
+19.6%
33,00921,44358,868
D
+7.6%
28,13924,08953,586
D
+10.2%
29,91724,28255,451
R
−6.1%
23,62726,75151,001
R
−4.0%
19,64321,35243,025
R
−1.5%
17,50218,08239,682
D
+1.5%
16,48915,80444,282
R
−21.8%
14,95723,48039,011
R
−31.9%
11,53622,54634,526
R
−33.5%
8,77019,56432,174
R
−14.1%
11,83315,85728,446
R
−27.5%
9,26616,67926,980
R
−20.2%
7,52511,73820,864
R
−0.6%
9,5069,62519,132
R
−13.1%
7,68610,01117,747
R
−29.3%
4,7908,78513,626
R
−26.3%
4,5737,86712,511
R
−1.6%
4,4084,5589,221
D
+8.5%
4,0383,4007,485
D
+12.3%
3,1952,4885,750
D
+28.4%
2,9011,6024,571
D
+12.1%
2,0481,5853,822
R
−35.2%
1,0212,1443,193
R
−42.7%
1321,0202,082
R
−36.5%
3818901,395
R
−0.4%
7557621,640
O
+44.8%
4370975
R
−32.2%
107243422
R
−40.1%
63193324
R
−16.4%
120171311
D
+3.4%
175163348
R
−15.3%
105158346
R
−17.9%
143209368
R
−15.9%
365088
R
−13.6%
253359
R
−9.1%
303666
Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2024D58.9%41.1%15,348,846
2022D61.1%38.9%10,843,650
2018D100.0%0.0%11,113,364
2016D100.0%0.0%12,244,170
2012D62.5%37.5%12,578,511
2010D52.2%42.2%10,000,160
2006D59.4%35.0%8,541,476
2004D57.7%37.8%12,053,295
2000D55.8%36.6%10,623,608
1998D53.1%43.0%8,311,905
1994D46.7%44.8%8,514,089
1992D47.9%43.0%10,799,703
1988R44.0%52.8%9,743,598
1986D49.3%47.9%7,398,462
1982R44.8%51.5%7,805,450
1980D56.5%37.1%8,324,012
1976R46.9%50.2%7,470,586

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
9.1%
English
8.0%
Irish
7.8%
Italian
4.2%
American
2.5%
French
1.8%
Polish
1.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.3 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.7%
85+
1.1%
2.0%
75–84
2.5%
4.3%
65–74
4.8%
5.8%
55–64
5.9%
6.1%
45–54
6.0%
7.4%
35–44
6.9%
8.3%
25–34
7.6%
5.3%
18–24
4.5%
7.9%
5–17
7.5%
2.9%
<5
2.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$106,268
Congressional District 51 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 51$106,268
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
10.3%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1811.8%
Working age (18–64)9.9%
Seniors (65+)10.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
62.7%
speak English only
Spanish24.1%
Asian & Pacific Islander7.8%
Other Indo-European3.7%
Other languages1.7%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
23.2%
Other Christian
10.1%
Non-Christian
3.1%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.5%
Mainline Protestant
1.5%
Baptist
1.4%
Methodist
0.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 58.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

California's 51st stretches along the Tijuana border crossing, one of the busiest land ports in the world, giving it a heavily Latino electorate and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in federal races.

The 2008 election was the turning point, when the Democratic candidate carried the district by ten points. The 2024 margin was seventeen points, in line with the district's new direction.

The demographics suggest why. A population of 147,606, a 48% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $106,268 situate the district in the broader realignment patterns of recent cycles.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 51, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0651/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 51, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 51, California voted Democratic by 16.8 points (D+17), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 66,336 votes cast, 37,762 went Democratic and 26,627 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 51, California's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Congressional District 51, California as a "Recent convert" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 11 times, Republican 26 times, and other 1 times.
When did Congressional District 51, California last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 51, California voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in Congressional District 51, California?
Congressional District 51, California has a population of 147,606 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 51, California?
Median household income in Congressional District 51, California is $106,268 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Congressional District 51, California?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 51, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 26 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Recent convert" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.