- Lead
- 16,156
- Total
- 157,268
- vs nation
- D+11.7
Pennsylvania 38th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 15,439
- Total
- 156,803
- vs nation
- D+5.4
- Lead
- 6,483
- Total
- 139,008
- vs nation
- D+2.6
- Lead
- 3,017
- Total
- 132,406
- vs nation
- R+1.6
- Lead
- 4,265
- Total
- 138,396
- vs nation
- R+4.2
- Lead
- 3,698
- Total
- 136,573
- vs nation
- D+5.2
- Lead
- 5,321
- Total
- 123,115
- vs nation
- D+3.8
- Lead
- 4,318
- Total
- 114,597
- vs nation
- R+4.8
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+10.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 251,3892024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,237 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 203 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $93,1232024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+22.7 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+65.2 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 37, PA · twin score 94.8
presidential history
Party record book
Pennsylvania 38th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
60.2%
89,591 votes · D+20.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 59.4%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
79.7%
22,069 votes · R+65.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 75.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
89,591votes
60.2% of the vote · D+20.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 85,819 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
93,143votes
60.8% of the vote · R+21.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 90,124 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Walter Mondale1984
+19.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+0.9 · U.S. R+18.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Michael Dukakis, 1988 · +15.6 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+47.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+53.1 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 · +45.5 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 58.9%84,130 | 41.1%58,713 | 142,843 |
In 2024 it voted Democratic by D+10.2, against D+3.1 in 2008, having changed party at least once across the five cycles. The district had about 343,000 residents, 76.1% White alone in the 2024 ACS 5-year.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 22.7 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 65.2 points in 1904. The 2024 margin was 10.3 points.
A population of 251,389, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $93,123 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 37 and State Senate District 45.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Pennsylvania 38th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/42038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.