- Lead
- 15,645
- Total
- 61,461
- vs nation
- D+26.9
Oregon 15th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 17,861
- Total
- 66,639
- vs nation
- D+22.3
- Lead
- 10,265
- Total
- 55,391
- vs nation
- D+16.4
- Lead
- 4,413
- Total
- 48,565
- vs nation
- D+5.2
- Lead
- 6,685
- Total
- 48,328
- vs nation
- D+6.6
- Lead
- 1,317
- Total
- 47,931
- vs nation
- R+0.3
- Lead
- 2,255
- Total
- 38,717
- vs nation
- R+6.3
- Lead
- 142
- Total
- 33,355
- vs nation
- R+8.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+25.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 140,5982024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,345 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 105 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $100,9672024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 55.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 26.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+26.8 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.4 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 18, OR · twin score 97.3
presidential history
Party record book
Oregon 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
61.4%
40,919 votes · D+26.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 60.6%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
76.7%
487 votes · R+64.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 69.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
40,919votes
61.4% of the vote · D+26.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 37,254 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
24,314votes
50.7% of the vote · R+2.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 23,058 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+26.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+25.5 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +22.3 pts
Republican
Benjamin Harrison1892
+49.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+47.3 · U.S. D+1.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 · +44.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 67.2%43,455 | 32.8%21,245 | 64,700 |
| 2020 | D | 67.1%48,206 | 32.9%23,619 | 71,825 |
Oregon 15th State Senate District sits in the Pacific Northwest. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 26.8 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 64.4 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 25.5 points.
A population of 140,598, a 56% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $100,967 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 18 and State Senate District 22.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Oregon 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/41015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.