- Lead
- 2,249
- Total
- 16,010
- vs nation
- D+15.5
Hawaii 15th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 3,985
- Total
- 19,412
- vs nation
- D+16.1
- Lead
- 4,177
- Total
- 13,811
- vs nation
- D+28.2
- Lead
- 5,651
- Total
- 14,417
- vs nation
- D+35.3
- Lead
- 6,140
- Total
- 14,937
- vs nation
- D+33.8
- Lead
- 418
- Total
- 14,569
- vs nation
- D+5.3
- Lead
- 1,918
- Total
- 12,420
- vs nation
- D+14.9
- Lead
- 2,829
- Total
- 12,297
- vs nation
- D+14.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+14.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 79,4652024 5-year
- Population density
- 3,230 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 24.6 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $92,8062024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 22.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+57.5 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+26.8 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 19, HI · twin score 94.7
presidential history
Party record book
Hawaii 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1960–2024 · 17 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
78.7%
5,965 votes · D+57.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 69.9%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
63.4%
6,437 votes · R+26.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 56.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
11,532votes
59.4% of the vote · D+20.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 10,444 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
7,547votes
38.9% of the vote · D+20.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 7,041 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+35.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+39.2 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · +34.9 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
+3.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+26.8 · U.S. R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Gerald Ford, 1976 · −0.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Centered in urban Honolulu, this district's dense residential neighborhoods and diverse working-class population have produced consistent double-digit Democratic presidential margins, making it one of Hawaii's more reliably blue legislative seats.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 57.5 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 26.8 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 14.0 points.
A population of 79,465, a 22% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $92,806 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 19 and State Senate District 14.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Hawaii 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/15015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.