- Lead
- 33,607
- Total
- 145,701
- vs nation
- R+21.6
Arizona 28th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 33,301
- Total
- 143,385
- vs nation
- R+27.7
- Lead
- 30,561
- Total
- 109,486
- vs nation
- R+30.0
- Lead
- 36,082
- Total
- 99,820
- vs nation
- R+40.0
- Lead
- 35,756
- Total
- 99,249
- vs nation
- R+43.3
- Lead
- 34,710
- Total
- 87,637
- vs nation
- R+37.1
- Lead
- 22,957
- Total
- 64,765
- vs nation
- R+36.0
- Lead
- 15,634
- Total
- 56,814
- vs nation
- R+36.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+23.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 228,8032024 5-year
- Population density
- 765 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 299 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $87,3262024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+17.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+63.7 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 10, AZ · twin score 92.9
presidential history
Party record book
Arizona 28th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
50.6%
1,593 votes · D+3.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 46.6%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
81.6%
36,917 votes · R+63.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 80.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
55,348votes
38.0% of the vote · R+23.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 54,336 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
88,955votes
61.1% of the vote · R+23.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 87,637 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1912
−1.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+17.7 · U.S. D+19.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · −20.6 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+56.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+33.5 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Gerald Ford, 1976 · +52.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 48.9%47,657 | 51.1%49,873 | 97,530 |
Anchored in rural and exurban terrain southwest of Phoenix, this district has posted lopsided Republican margins in recent cycles, making it among the least competitive seats in the Arizona Senate.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 17.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 63.7 points in 1984. The 2024 margin was 23.1 points.
A population of 228,803, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $87,326 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 10 and State Senate District 3.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arizona 28th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/04028/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.