- Lead
- 5,944
- Total
- 107,727
- vs nation
- R+4.0
Arizona 2nd State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 2,520
- Total
- 113,347
- vs nation
- R+6.7
- Lead
- 8,200
- Total
- 88,453
- vs nation
- R+11.4
- Lead
- 13,599
- Total
- 77,685
- vs nation
- R+21.4
- Lead
- 13,392
- Total
- 77,364
- vs nation
- R+24.6
- Lead
- 14,368
- Total
- 67,452
- vs nation
- R+18.8
- Lead
- 8,647
- Total
- 50,897
- vs nation
- R+17.5
- Lead
- 4,177
- Total
- 46,004
- vs nation
- R+17.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+5.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 246,6742024 5-year
- Population density
- 3,171 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 77.8 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $81,5482024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 60.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 23.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+31.2 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50.0 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 27, AZ · twin score 96.9
presidential history
Party record book
Arizona 2nd State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
63.4%
1,672 votes · D+31.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 59.0%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
74.5%
24,550 votes · R+50.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 71.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
54,381votes
48.0% of the vote · R+2.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 50,050 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
56,901votes
50.2% of the vote · R+2.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 55,994 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+9.5pts D vs U.S.
Place R+15.7 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1912 · +7.0 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+37.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+14.6 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Gerald Ford, 1976 · +35.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Arizona's SD-2 sits close enough to the statewide average that it has become a reliable bellwether for broader shifts in the region's suburban and exurban electorate, with 2024's R+5.5 margin reflecting modest but measurable movement from prior cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 31.2 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 50.0 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.5 points.
A population of 246,674, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,548 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 27 and State Senate District 9.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arizona 2nd State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/04002/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.