- Lead
- 50
- Total
- 4,865
- vs nation
- D+0.4
Rhode Island 51st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 248
- Total
- 5,347
- vs nation
- D+0.2
- Lead
- 98
- Total
- 4,785
- vs nation
- Even
- Lead
- 734
- Total
- 4,436
- vs nation
- D+12.7
- Lead
- 737
- Total
- 4,672
- vs nation
- D+8.5
- Lead
- 342
- Total
- 4,350
- vs nation
- D+10.3
- Lead
- 797
- Total
- 4,062
- vs nation
- D+19.1
- Lead
- 968
- Total
- 3,933
- vs nation
- D+16.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+1.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 15,2042024 5-year
- Population density
- 3,103 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 4.9 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $74,1042024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 60.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 20.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+54.2 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+54.1 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 16, RI · twin score 94.8
presidential history
Party record book
Rhode Island 51st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
77.1%
3,493 votes · D+54.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hubert Humphrey, 1968 · 59.7%
Republican
William McKinley1896
74.8%
642 votes · R+54.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James A. Garfield, 1880 · 71.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
3,493votes
77.1% of the vote · D+54.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 3,007 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
3,690votes
65.5% of the vote · R+31.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 3,495 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+31.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+54.2 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hubert Humphrey, 1968 · +23.4 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+48.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+54.1 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William H. Taft, 1908 · +32.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 63.1%3,523 | 36.9%2,056 | 5,579 |
With a 1.0-point Republican presidential margin in a state that leans heavily Democratic statewide, District 51 stands out as a genuine bellwether, where small shifts in turnout or candidate quality can flip the outcome.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 54.2 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 54.1 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 5.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.0 points.
A population of 15,204, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,104 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 16 and State House District 49.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Rhode Island 51st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/44051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.