- Lead
- 25,090
- Total
- 43,641
- vs nation
- D+59.0
Oregon 38th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 26,086
- Total
- 46,962
- vs nation
- D+51.1
- Lead
- 19,687
- Total
- 41,622
- vs nation
- D+45.2
- Lead
- 17,525
- Total
- 37,487
- vs nation
- D+42.9
- Lead
- 19,197
- Total
- 38,219
- vs nation
- D+43.0
- Lead
- 15,162
- Total
- 37,464
- vs nation
- D+42.9
- Lead
- 10,994
- Total
- 30,791
- vs nation
- D+35.2
- Lead
- 10,176
- Total
- 27,981
- vs nation
- D+27.8
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+57.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 70,7102024 5-year
- Population density
- 3,608 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 19.6 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $132,9292024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 77.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+57.5 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+46.1 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 25, OR · twin score 96.3
presidential history
Party record book
Oregon 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
77.0%
33,585 votes · D+57.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 76.4%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
65.6%
789 votes · R+46.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1928 · 54.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
35,894votes
76.4% of the vote · D+55.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 33,585 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
10,953votes
29.2% of the vote · D+40.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 9,837 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+59.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+57.5 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +51.1 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+26.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+46.1 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Benjamin Harrison, 1892 · +24.9 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 2024 presidential margin of D+57.5, this district ranks among the most reliably left-aligned constituencies in the state, leaving general-election outcomes largely decided before ballots are cast.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 57.5 points in 2024 and a Republican high of 46.1 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.9 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 57.5 points.
A population of 70,710, a 77% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $132,929 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 25 and State House District 27.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Oregon 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/41038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.