- Lead
- 18,858
- Total
- 45,847
- vs nation
- R+39.7
North Carolina 86th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 17,901
- Total
- 44,602
- vs nation
- R+44.6
- Lead
- 14,987
- Total
- 38,920
- vs nation
- R+40.6
- Lead
- 8,566
- Total
- 36,544
- vs nation
- R+27.3
- Lead
- 7,201
- Total
- 37,443
- vs nation
- R+26.5
- Lead
- 7,194
- Total
- 30,762
- vs nation
- R+20.9
- Lead
- 6,542
- Total
- 30,658
- vs nation
- R+21.9
- Lead
- 2,175
- Total
- 28,291
- vs nation
- R+16.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+41.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 87,5702024 5-year
- Population density
- 173 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 506 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $58,5922024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 78.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+48.8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+41.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 94, NC · twin score 96.8
presidential history
Party record book
North Carolina 86th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
67.8%
1,215 votes · D+35.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 59.7%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
70.1%
32,130 votes · R+41.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 69.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
14,901votes
39.8% of the vote · R+19.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · 14,254 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
32,130votes
70.1% of the vote · R+41.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 31,019 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+38.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+12.9 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1912 · +29.2 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+44.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+40.1 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +40.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+41.1, this district sits among the state's most reliably conservative constituencies, leaving general-election outcomes largely decided before ballots are cast.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 48.8 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 41.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 41.1 points.
A population of 87,570, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,592 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 94 and State House District 87.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
North Carolina 86th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/37086/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.