- Lead
- 24,206
- Total
- 39,024
- vs nation
- D+63.5
North Carolina 38th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 26,773
- Total
- 40,648
- vs nation
- D+61.4
- Lead
- 24,506
- Total
- 36,871
- vs nation
- D+64.4
- Lead
- 20,627
- Total
- 32,627
- vs nation
- D+59.4
- Lead
- 19,573
- Total
- 30,348
- vs nation
- D+57.2
- Lead
- 11,795
- Total
- 21,918
- vs nation
- D+56.3
- Lead
- 8,264
- Total
- 16,332
- vs nation
- D+50.1
- Lead
- 7,150
- Total
- 14,171
- vs nation
- D+41.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+62.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 86,4442024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,798 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 30.9 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $68,1832024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 33.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 38.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 20.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+96.2 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 31, NC · twin score 98.1
presidential history
Party record book
North Carolina 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
98.1%
1,995 votes · D+96.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 97.9%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
40.2%
1,565 votes · D+18.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 30.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
33,383votes
82.1% of the vote · D+65.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 31,241 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
7,035votes
18.0% of the vote · D+62.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 6,610 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+113.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+88.6 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +112.6 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1968
−36.4pts R vs U.S.
Place D+35.7 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · −41.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 62.6%27,520 | 37.4%16,413 | 43,933 |
| 2018 | D | 64.0%19,777 | 36.0%11,127 | 30,904 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of D+62.0, this district ranks among the most lopsided in the state, suggesting a dense urban or majority-minority constituency where competitive general elections are rare.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 96.2 points in 1936. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 62.0 points.
A population of 86,444, a 33% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,183 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 31 and State House District 112.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
North Carolina 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/37038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.