- Lead
- 4,293
- Total
- 15,594
- vs nation
- D+29.0
New Mexico 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 5,006
- Total
- 16,155
- vs nation
- D+26.5
- Lead
- 3,535
- Total
- 14,104
- vs nation
- D+23.0
- Lead
- 3,371
- Total
- 13,919
- vs nation
- D+20.4
- Lead
- 4,363
- Total
- 14,782
- vs nation
- D+22.2
- Lead
- 1,676
- Total
- 13,130
- vs nation
- D+15.2
- Lead
- 1,056
- Total
- 10,412
- vs nation
- D+9.6
- Lead
- 1,183
- Total
- 9,275
- vs nation
- D+4.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+27.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 31,0252024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,763 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 17.6 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $66,5212024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 36.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 51.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+43.6 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+22.0 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 11, NM · twin score 95.1
presidential history
Party record book
New Mexico 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
71.4%
858 votes · D+43.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 64.3%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
61.0%
1,968 votes · R+22.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 57.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
10,393votes
64.3% of the vote · D+31.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 9,761 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
5,662votes
43.1% of the vote · D+12.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 5,468 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
James M. Cox1920
+32.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+6.3 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +29.0 pts
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
+6.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+22.0 · U.S. R+15.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1968 · +6.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 61.0%8,444 | 39.0%5,399 | 13,843 |
New Mexico 15th State House District sits in the desert Southwest. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 43.6 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 22.0 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 27.5 points.
A population of 31,025, a 37% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,521 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 11 and State House District 25.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New Mexico 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/35015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.