- Lead
- 39
- Total
- 13,488
- vs nation
- D+1.2
Massachusetts 138th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 3,124
- Total
- 15,257
- vs nation
- D+16.0
- Lead
- 2,560
- Total
- 14,736
- vs nation
- D+15.3
- Lead
- 858
- Total
- 14,124
- vs nation
- D+2.2
- Lead
- 780
- Total
- 13,586
- vs nation
- R+1.5
- Lead
- 207
- Total
- 12,483
- vs nation
- D+4.1
- Lead
- 504
- Total
- 11,010
- vs nation
- D+4.1
- Lead
- 829
- Total
- 9,994
- vs nation
- R+0.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+0.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,3242024 5-year
- Population density
- 7,297 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 5.8 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $99,1982024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 48.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 33.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+34.3 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+68.5 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 19th Suffolk District, MA · twin score 95.1
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 138th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
67.1%
8,532 votes · D+34.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 59.5%
Republican
William McKinley1896
82.7%
5,055 votes · R+68.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 81.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
9,075votes
59.5% of the vote · D+20.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 8,532 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
15,803votes
72.2% of the vote · R+44.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 15,663 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+16.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+20.5 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · +15.3 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+62.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+68.5 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Benjamin Harrison, 1892 · +42.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 93.8%13,071 | 6.2%864 | 13,935 |
| 2020 | D | 92.8%14,240 | 7.2%1,111 | 15,351 |
Once reliably Democratic in presidential cycles, the 16th Suffolk flipped to a razor-thin Republican lean in 2024, making it one of the most closely contested state house districts in the Boston metro.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 34.3 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 68.5 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 20.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.3 points.
A population of 42,324, a 48% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $99,198 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 19th Suffolk District and Assembly District 6.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 138th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25138/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.