- Lead
- 77
- Total
- 26,325
- vs nation
- D+1.2
Massachusetts 115th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 2,290
- Total
- 26,883
- vs nation
- D+4.1
- Lead
- 442
- Total
- 24,970
- vs nation
- R+3.9
- Lead
- 1,437
- Total
- 23,111
- vs nation
- R+10.1
- Lead
- 485
- Total
- 22,610
- vs nation
- R+9.4
- Lead
- 299
- Total
- 21,096
- vs nation
- D+1.0
- Lead
- 1,184
- Total
- 18,957
- vs nation
- D+5.7
- Lead
- 2,225
- Total
- 17,326
- vs nation
- D+4.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+0.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 43,7792024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,006 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 43.5 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $138,4612024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 88.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+27.8 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.0 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 6th Plymouth District, MA · twin score 98.7
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 115th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
63.7%
6,740 votes · D+27.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 53.0%
Republican
William McKinley1896
77.0%
1,372 votes · R+64.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 76.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
14,243votes
53.0% of the vote · D+8.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 12,814 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
12,891votes
49.0% of the vote · R+0.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 12,124 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
George McGovern1972
+8.7pts D vs U.S.
Place R+14.5 · U.S. R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · +5.7 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+57.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+64.0 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · +48.0 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 57.8%13,615 | 42.2%9,950 | 23,565 |
| 2020 | D | 72.0%15,132 | 28.0%5,887 | 21,019 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of just R+0.3, this southeastern Massachusetts district sits at the edge of competitive territory, making it a reliable bellwether for statewide suburban and exurban shifts.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 27.8 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 64.0 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 8.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.3 points.
A population of 43,779, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $138,461 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 6th Plymouth District and 7th Plymouth District.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 115th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25115/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.