- Lead
- 1,824
- Total
- 28,675
- vs nation
- D+7.8
Massachusetts 78th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 3,684
- Total
- 29,024
- vs nation
- D+8.2
- Lead
- 559
- Total
- 26,585
- vs nation
- Even
- Lead
- 2,394
- Total
- 25,605
- vs nation
- R+13.2
- Lead
- 1,332
- Total
- 24,550
- vs nation
- R+12.7
- Lead
- 1,664
- Total
- 23,340
- vs nation
- R+4.7
- Lead
- 414
- Total
- 21,612
- vs nation
- R+2.4
- Lead
- 1,045
- Total
- 20,009
- vs nation
- R+3.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+6.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 44,7662024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,139 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 39.3 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $168,0282024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 88.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+23.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+68.2 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 1st Middlesex District, MA · twin score 95.6
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 78th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
61.5%
11,022 votes · D+23.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 55.2%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
82.0%
8,398 votes · R+66.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 80.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
16,033votes
55.2% of the vote · D+12.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 14,873 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
16,624votes
74.7% of the vote · R+49.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 15,807 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+8.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+12.7 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +7.8 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+62.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+68.2 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · +53.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 77.5%16,493 | 22.5%4,778 | 21,271 |
The 20th Middlesex sits in a suburban-to-urban gradient within one of Massachusetts' most densely contested counties, where a single-digit presidential margin makes it a credible target for both major parties in state legislative cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 23.6 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 68.2 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 6.4 points.
A population of 44,766, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $168,028 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 1st Middlesex District and 9th Norfolk District.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 78th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25078/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.