- Lead
- 7,501
- Total
- 47,708
- vs nation
- D+17.2
Illinois 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 13,235
- Total
- 52,540
- vs nation
- D+20.7
- Lead
- 14,426
- Total
- 45,986
- vs nation
- D+29.3
- Lead
- 10,697
- Total
- 43,356
- vs nation
- D+20.8
- Lead
- 13,320
- Total
- 45,358
- vs nation
- D+22.1
- Lead
- 6,608
- Total
- 45,210
- vs nation
- D+17.1
- Lead
- 5,828
- Total
- 41,434
- vs nation
- D+13.5
- Lead
- 5,966
- Total
- 37,973
- vs nation
- D+7.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+15.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 108,7092024 5-year
- Population density
- 6,320 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 17.2 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $96,4452024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 56.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 15.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+31.4 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+66.5 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 55, IL · twin score 95.5
presidential history
Party record book
Illinois 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
64.1%
29,094 votes · D+29.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 62.8%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
80.4%
20,488 votes · R+66.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · 72.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
32,396votes
61.7% of the vote · D+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 29,094 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
41,348votes
70.2% of the vote · R+40.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 39,368 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
+29.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+31.4 · U.S. D+2.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · +22.1 pts
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
+40.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+66.5 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · +36.8 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 73.1%30,491 | 26.9%11,202 | 41,693 |
Illinois 15th State House District sits in the Upper Midwest. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 31.4 points in 2016 and a Republican high of 66.5 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 9.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 15.7 points.
A population of 108,709, a 56% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $96,445 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 55 and State House District 56.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Illinois 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/17015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.