California 21st Congressional District (CA) — Elections 1876–2024

California 21st Congressional District, California: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+10%. Democratic peak: D+49 in 1936.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+10MIT Election Lab
Political archetype: BellwetherAkashic typology
Population: 120,4752024 5-year
Median household income: $73,1612024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 36.0%2024 5-year
Black: 3.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 58.8%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+49 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+32 in 1924MIT Election Lab

COSTA, JimCongress 119 · Democratic

−1 liberal

+1 conservative

Predecessors: VALADAO, David G. (2021–2023), COX, TJ (2019–2021), VALADAO, David G. (2017–2019), VALADAO, David G. (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).

2024 results by constituent county

2 counties · 0 D · 2 R

R+60

D+60

One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−9.8%	16,328	19,998	37,259
2020	D	+2.8%	20,637	19,501	40,992
2016	D	+1.1%	15,038	14,689	32,116
2012	R	−3.5%	13,583	14,602	28,879
2008	R	−3.4%	14,329	15,351	30,308
2004	R	−21.4%	10,773	16,694	27,731
2000	R	−14.4%	10,204	13,798	24,891
1996	R	−6.6%	10,127	11,686	23,586
1992	R	−2.4%	9,839	10,428	24,649
1988	R	−7.6%	9,813	11,439	21,531
1984	R	−15.9%	9,094	12,570	21,879
1980	R	−14.8%	7,230	10,000	18,660
1976	R	−2.3%	8,003	8,388	16,736
1972	R	−10.2%	7,490	9,261	17,340
1968	R	−1.6%	6,954	7,198	15,514
1964	D	+27.6%	9,859	5,589	15,464
1960	D	+4.5%	7,731	7,061	14,860
1956	D	+7.0%	7,223	6,274	13,531
1952	R	−3.6%	6,095	6,553	12,748
1948	D	+14.7%	5,406	3,971	9,744
1944	D	+17.9%	4,563	3,167	7,783
1940	D	+29.4%	5,531	2,993	8,623
1936	D	+49.3%	4,968	1,656	6,718
1932	D	+38.5%	3,883	1,650	5,793
1928	R	−16.9%	1,882	2,660	4,602
1924	R	−31.6%	659	2,044	4,385
1920	R	−22.9%	1,167	1,936	3,353
1916	D	+6.6%	1,741	1,507	3,572
1912	O	+42.7%	1,063	0	2,489
1908	R	−11.0%	571	733	1,470
1904	R	−19.6%	362	575	1,084
1900	D	+4.7%	476	431	958
1896	D	+22.4%	529	331	884
1892	D	+27.0%	498	179	1,180
1888	D	+6.8%	452	392	886
1884	D	+13.0%	282	214	523
1880	D	+21.6%	204	129	347
1876	D	+26.3%	197	115	312

Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year	Won	D %	R %	Total
2024	D	58.9%	41.1%	15,348,846
2022	D	61.1%	38.9%	10,843,650
2018	D	100.0%	0.0%	11,113,364
2016	D	100.0%	0.0%	12,244,170
2012	D	62.5%	37.5%	12,578,511
2010	D	52.2%	42.2%	10,000,160
2006	D	59.4%	35.0%	8,541,476
2004	D	57.7%	37.8%	12,053,295
2000	D	55.8%	36.6%	10,623,608
1998	D	53.1%	43.0%	8,311,905
1994	D	46.7%	44.8%	8,514,089
1992	D	47.9%	43.0%	10,799,703
1988	R	44.0%	52.8%	9,743,598
1986	D	49.3%	47.9%	7,398,462
1982	R	44.8%	51.5%	7,805,450
1980	D	56.5%	37.1%	8,324,012
1976	R	46.9%	50.2%	7,470,586

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

German

5.9%

English

4.7%

Irish

4.4%

Italian

2.0%

American

1.7%

Scottish

0.8%

French

0.7%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 33.0 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.5%

85+

0.9%

1.6%

75–84

2.0%

3.5%

65–74

4.0%

5.0%

55–64

5.1%

5.6%

45–54

5.4%

6.8%

35–44

6.6%

7.4%

25–34

7.2%

5.0%

18–24

4.8%

10.9%

5–17

10.5%

3.6%

3.5%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Median household income

2024 inflation-adjusted dollars

$73,161

Congressional District 21 ranks near the middle of US counties.

Congressional District 21$73,161

California$99,122

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

18.2%

Children face moderate poverty.

Children under 1824.6%

Working age (18–64)15.7%

Seniors (65+)14.4%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

54.0%

speak English only

Spanish37.9%

Asian & Pacific Islander4.5%

Other Indo-European2.8%

Other languages0.8%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Catholic & Orthodox

27.4%

Other Christian

9.9%

Pentecostal & Holiness

4.0%

Baptist

1.9%

Non-Christian

1.7%

Mainline Protestant

1.3%

Methodist

0.4%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 53.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

CA-21 covers a swath of the San Joaquin Valley, where water rights and agricultural employment drive voter concerns more than most California districts. The 2024 presidential margin of R+8.4 makes it among the most Republican-leaning seats in the state.

The Democratic margin in California 21st Congressional District has rarely exceeded forty-nine points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded thirty-two points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by ten points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 36% non-Hispanic-white share, a 18% poverty rate, and a median household income of $73,161 — all within the broad national range.

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Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Congressional District 21, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0621/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 21, California vote in 2024?

In 2024, Congressional District 21, California voted Republican by 9.8 points (R+10), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 37,259 votes cast, 16,328 went Democratic and 19,998 went Republican.

What is Congressional District 21, California's political archetype?

Akashic classifies Congressional District 21, California as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 18 times, Republican 19 times, and other 1 times.

When did Congressional District 21, California last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 21, California voted Democratic was 2020.

How many people live in Congressional District 21, California?

Congressional District 21, California has a population of 120,475 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Congressional District 21, California?

Median household income in Congressional District 21, California is $73,161 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.

What is the political history of Congressional District 21, California?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 21, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 19 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.

California 21st Congressional District delivered R+10 in 2024.

Key facts

U.S. Senate

Demographics

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions