Electoral AnalysisSince 1980

Who Always Picks the Winner?

0 counties have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980.

These bellwether counties are the nation's political barometers—places where local sentiment has perfectly tracked national outcomes for over four decades.

A bellwether county is a county that has voted for the winner of the presidential election consistently over time. As of 2024, there are 0 counties that have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980.

0
Perfect Record
28
90%+ Accuracy
98
80%+ Accuracy
12
Elections Tracked

Near-Perfect Bellwethers

Counties with 90%+ accuracy in predicting winners

Blaine County

MT

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 9
Missed: 1988

Pinellas County

FL

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 6
Missed: 2000

Nicollet County

MN

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 5
Missed: 2004

Sullivan County

NH

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 5
Missed: 2004

Albany County

WY

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 3
Missed: 2012

Merced County

CA

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016

San Bernardino County

CA

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016

San Joaquin County

CA

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016

Stanislaus County

CA

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016

Warren County

IL

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Vigo County

IN

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Bremer County

IA

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Washington County

ME

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Shiawassee County

MI

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Van Buren County

MI

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Hidalgo County

NM

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Valencia County

NM

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Cortland County

NY

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Otsego County

NY

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Ottawa County

OH

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Wood County

OH

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Essex County

VT

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Westmoreland County

VA

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Juneau County

WI

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Marquette County

WI

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Richland County

WI

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Sawyer County

WI

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020

Clallam County

WA

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 0
Missed: 2024

Notable Bellwethers

Counties with 80-90% accuracy in predicting winners

Kennebec County

ME

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Missed: 2004, 2000

Blue Earth County

MN

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Missed: 2004, 1988

Winona County

MN

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Missed: 2004, 2000

Gloucester County

NJ

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Missed: 2004, 2000

Northampton County

PA

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Missed: 2004, 2000

Sauk County

WI

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Missed: 2004, 2000

Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area

AK

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 4
Missed: 2008, 1996

Butte County

CA

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 3
Missed: 2012, 1996

Rockingham County

NH

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 3
Missed: 2012, 1992

Marion County

OR

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 3
Missed: 2012, 1992

Fresno County

CA

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016, 1996

Riverside County

CA

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016, 1996

Hillsborough County

FL

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016, 1992

Baldwin County

GA

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016, 1980

Latah County

ID

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016, 1988

Pike County

MS

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016, 1980

Rockland County

NY

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016, 2000

Orleans County

VT

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Missed: 2016, 2004

Alamosa County

CO

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2016

Bureau County

IL

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Coles County

IL

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Jo Daviess County

IL

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 1992

Kankakee County

IL

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

McDonough County

IL

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Mason County

IL

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Schuyler County

IL

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Delaware County

IN

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 1992

Porter County

IN

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 1992

Spencer County

IN

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Starke County

IN

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Vanderburgh County

IN

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Allamakee County

IA

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 1992

Jefferson County

IA

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2004

Marshall County

IA

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 1988

Union County

IA

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 1988

Penobscot County

ME

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2004

Benzie County

MI

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Calhoun County

MI

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2000

Cass County

MI

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Gladwin County

MI

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Lenawee County

MI

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Manistee County

MI

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2000

Menominee County

MI

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Monroe County

MI

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2000

Presque Isle County

MI

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Houston County

MN

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 1992

Traverse County

MN

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 1988

Watonwan County

MN

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

Chickasaw County

MS

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 1980

Cascade County

MT

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Missed: 2020, 2012

What Makes a Bellwether County?

Bellwether counties are often demographically representative of the broader nation, featuring a mix of urban and rural areas, diverse economies, and balanced partisan makeup. They tend to be swing counties where elections are closely contested.

However, it's important to note that past performance doesn't guarantee future predictive power. Many formerly reliable bellwethers have broken their streaks in recent elections as political realignments have reshaped the electoral map.

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