Who Always Picks the Winner?
0 counties have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980.
These bellwether counties are the nation's political barometers—places where local sentiment has perfectly tracked national outcomes for over four decades.
A bellwether county is a county that has voted for the winner of the presidential election consistently over time. As of 2024, there are 0 counties that have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980.
Near-Perfect Bellwethers
Counties with 90%+ accuracy in predicting winners
Blaine County
MT
Pinellas County
FL
Nicollet County
MN
Sullivan County
NH
Albany County
WY
Merced County
CA
San Bernardino County
CA
San Joaquin County
CA
Stanislaus County
CA
Warren County
IL
Vigo County
IN
Bremer County
IA
Washington County
ME
Shiawassee County
MI
Van Buren County
MI
Hidalgo County
NM
Valencia County
NM
Cortland County
NY
Otsego County
NY
Ottawa County
OH
Wood County
OH
Essex County
VT
Westmoreland County
VA
Juneau County
WI
Marquette County
WI
Richland County
WI
Sawyer County
WI
Clallam County
WA
Notable Bellwethers
Counties with 80-90% accuracy in predicting winners
Kennebec County
ME
Blue Earth County
MN
Winona County
MN
Gloucester County
NJ
Northampton County
PA
Sauk County
WI
Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area
AK
Butte County
CA
Rockingham County
NH
Marion County
OR
Fresno County
CA
Riverside County
CA
Hillsborough County
FL
Baldwin County
GA
Latah County
ID
Pike County
MS
Rockland County
NY
Orleans County
VT
Alamosa County
CO
Bureau County
IL
Coles County
IL
Jo Daviess County
IL
Kankakee County
IL
McDonough County
IL
Mason County
IL
Schuyler County
IL
Delaware County
IN
Porter County
IN
Spencer County
IN
Starke County
IN
Vanderburgh County
IN
Allamakee County
IA
Jefferson County
IA
Marshall County
IA
Union County
IA
Penobscot County
ME
Benzie County
MI
Calhoun County
MI
Cass County
MI
Gladwin County
MI
Lenawee County
MI
Manistee County
MI
Menominee County
MI
Monroe County
MI
Presque Isle County
MI
Houston County
MN
Traverse County
MN
Watonwan County
MN
Chickasaw County
MS
Cascade County
MT
What Makes a Bellwether County?
Bellwether counties are often demographically representative of the broader nation, featuring a mix of urban and rural areas, diverse economies, and balanced partisan makeup. They tend to be swing counties where elections are closely contested.
However, it's important to note that past performance doesn't guarantee future predictive power. Many formerly reliable bellwethers have broken their streaks in recent elections as political realignments have reshaped the electoral map.