Merced County, CA

CA · Presidential Elections 1876–2024

R+4.3
2024 Margin
R+14.9%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 2024
Voting Streak
290K
Population

Merced County, CA (California) voted R+4.3 for Donald Trump (Republican) in the 2024 presidential election, with Trump receiving 43,955 votes (50.71%) to 40,190 (46.36%) for Harris.

This represents a R+14.9% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. Merced County is classified as a competitive Republican county. Merced County has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2024. The county has a population of approximately 290,201.

Quick Stats

2024 ResultR+4.3
2020→2024 SwingR+14.9%
Voting StreakR since 2024
Elections on Record38

Demographics

Population290,201
Median Age
31.8(US: 38.7)
College (BA+)
15.3%(US: 35.2%)
Median Income
$65,510(US: $80k)
White (non-Hisp)
24.3%(US: 57.6%)
Hispanic
63.4%(US: 19.1%)
Black
3.3%(US: 12.2%)
Asian
7.3%(US: 5.7%)
Homeownership
54.0%(US: 64.5%)
Poverty Rate
19.1%(US: 12.3%)
Veterans
3.6%(US: 6.2%)
Non-English (CVAP)
45.5%(US: 17.0%)
Source: Census ACS 5-Year (2020-2024)

Community Profile

Religious Composition

Source: Religion Census 2020
Catholic
33.9%(Above Average)
Evangelical
7.0%(Below Average)
LDS/Mormon
1.0%
Black Protestant
0.8%
Mainline Protestant
0.6%

Ancestry Groups

Source: Census ACS

Top reported ancestry groups (compared to national average).

Mexican
60.5%Major Concentration(5.4x)
Portuguese
4.8%Major Concentration(12.4x)
German
4.3%
Irish
3.3%
English
3.3%
Italian
1.8%
+ 1 more reported ancestry groups

Age Distribution

Median:31.8 yrs(US: 38.5)
Under 18
28.7%↑
18-29
11.3%↓
30-44
21.4%↑
45-64
26.9%
65+
11.7%↓
National average

Employment by Industry

Census ACS
Retail Trade
10.7%
Agriculture & ForestryExceptional Hub
10.2%(6.0x US)
Manufacturing
9.4%
Construction
8.6%(1.3x US)
Educational Services
8.0%
Professional & Technical
7.3%(0.6x US)
National average
+ 1 more sectors

Presidential Elections

Presidential Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202446.4%(40,190)50.7%(43,955)R+4.3R+14.9
202053.8%(48,991)43.3%(39,397)D+10.5R+1.5
201652.5%(37,317)40.4%(28,725)D+12.1D+3.4
201253.0%(33,005)44.3%(27,581)D+8.7D+0.4
200853.1%(34,031)44.8%(28,704)D+8.3D+22.6
200442.3%(24,491)56.5%(32,773)R+14.3R+7.6
200045.1%(22,726)51.8%(26,102)R+6.7R+8.7
199646.4%(21,786)44.4%(20,847)D+2.0R+2.4
199240.9%(20,133)36.5%(17,981)D+4.4D+8.2
198847.4%(20,105)51.2%(21,717)R+3.8D+15.0

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Presidential Margin Trend

Merced County, CA • 1876–2024

D+R++40+200-20-401876188418921900190819161924193219401948195619641972198019881996200420122020
Democratic margin
Republican margin

Senate Elections

Senate Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202448.3%(40,394)51.7%(43,320)R+3.5R+112.9
2018109.4%(56,519)0.0%(0)D+109.4D+8.9
2016100.5%(60,337)0.0%(0)D+100.5D+90.6
201255.0%(32,955)45.0%(27,000)D+9.9R+2.7
200653.8%(22,081)41.2%(16,914)D+12.6D+0.7
200051.9%(25,426)40.0%(19,612)D+11.9D+25.5
199439.0%(15,092)52.7%(20,372)R+13.7R+17.5
199247.6%(22,010)43.8%(20,246)D+3.8D+12.1
198843.8%(17,247)52.0%(20,513)R+8.3D+6.0
198240.3%(12,814)54.5%(17,348)R+14.2R+19.4

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Governor Elections

Governor Results

YearDemocratRepublicanMarginSwing
202245.6%(25,200)54.4%(30,073)R+8.8R+12.8
201852.0%(30,783)48.0%(28,424)D+4.0D+3.7
201450.1%(18,945)49.9%(18,848)D+0.3D+2.6
201045.8%(21,887)48.1%(23,021)R+2.4D+26.7
200633.4%(14,027)62.5%(26,231)R+29.1R+26.3
200244.6%(18,071)47.3%(19,191)R+2.8R+12.0
199853.4%(21,200)44.2%(17,535)D+9.2D+38.8
199433.4%(13,197)62.9%(24,873)R+29.5R+23.4
199044.5%(15,004)50.6%(17,054)R+6.1D+33.5
198629.3%(9,105)68.9%(21,426)R+39.6R+31.1

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

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