Political Realignment2008 → 2024
Where Did Obama Voters Go to Trump?
181 counties voted Obama twice, then switched to Trump for all three of his campaigns.
These "pivot counties" represent the most dramatic political realignment in modern American history—working-class communities in the Rust Belt, Appalachia, and rural Midwest that once formed the Democratic coalition's foundation.
181 U.S. counties completed the full Obama-to-Trump realignment: voting for Obama in both 2008 and 2012, then switching to Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024. These "pivot counties" represent the core of America's working-class political realignment, concentrated in the Rust Belt, Appalachia, and rural Midwest.
181
True Pivot Counties
Obama 2x → Trump 3x
82
Obama → Trump 2024
Recent converts
12
Swing Back
Obama → Trump → Biden
263
Total Realigned
Obama → Trump (any pattern)
True Pivot Counties
100 counties voted Obama twice, then Trump three times - the complete realignment
Elliott County
KY
-87.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+25.2
2024: R+61.9
Pop: 7,307
Chickasaw County
IA
-57.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+20.8
2024: R+37.1
Pop: 11,807
Howard County
IA
-57.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+25.8
2024: R+31.7
Pop: 9,445
Jackson County
IA
-56.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+24.4
2024: R+32.5
Pop: 19,390
Henderson County
IL
-56.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+17.7
2024: R+38.8
Pop: 6,193
Benson County
ND
-54.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+35.8
2024: R+18.4
Pop: 5,808
Perry County
IN
-52.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.8
2024: R+29.7
Pop: 19,270
Clayton County
IA
-51.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+17.2
2024: R+34.4
Pop: 17,013
Worth County
IA
-50.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.4
2024: R+28.2
Pop: 7,350
Sargent County
ND
-49.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+17.5
2024: R+32.4
Pop: 3,804
Norman County
MN
-49.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+26.9
2024: R+22.2
Pop: 6,367
Forest County
WI
-48.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.2
2024: R+33.4
Pop: 9,369
Allamakee County
IA
-48.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+14.3
2024: R+34.3
Pop: 14,092
Swift County
MN
-47.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+13.8
2024: R+34.1
Pop: 9,748
Trempealeau County
WI
-47.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+26.4
2024: R+21.4
Pop: 30,839
Floyd County
IA
-47.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+21.9
2024: R+25.6
Pop: 15,328
Fayette County
IA
-47.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+16.6
2024: R+30.4
Pop: 19,288
Buchanan County
IA
-46.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+18.5
2024: R+28.1
Pop: 20,694
Steele County
ND
-45.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+20.3
2024: R+25.1
Pop: 1,804
Covington city
VA
-45.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.1
2024: R+33.2
Pop: 5,680
Louisa County
IA
-45.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+4.2
2024: R+40.9
Pop: 10,678
Fulton County
IL
-45.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+21.3
2024: R+23.8
Pop: 33,020
Wapello County
IA
-45.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+13.5
2024: R+31.4
Pop: 35,362
Buffalo County
WI
-44.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+14.7
2024: R+30.2
Pop: 13,393
Price County
WI
-44.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+13.4
2024: R+31.1
Pop: 14,092
Lake County
MI
-44.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.3
2024: R+32.1
Pop: 12,563
Adams County
WI
-44.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+18.3
2024: R+25.8
Pop: 21,123
Clarke County
IA
-44.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+2.3
2024: R+41.9
Pop: 9,662
Lee County
IA
-43.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+16.0
2024: R+27.7
Pop: 32,893
Kittson County
MN
-43.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+18.5
2024: R+25.0
Pop: 4,084
Mitchell County
IA
-43.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.3
2024: R+31.1
Pop: 10,575
Ransom County
ND
-43.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.3
2024: R+28.0
Pop: 5,643
Day County
SD
-42.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.9
2024: R+29.9
Pop: 5,437
Roberts County
SD
-42.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+19.6
2024: R+23.0
Pop: 10,221
Lafayette County
WI
-42.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.3
2024: R+20.2
Pop: 16,942
Pepin County
WI
-42.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.9
2024: R+29.3
Pop: 7,431
Grant County
WI
-42.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+23.9
2024: R+18.1
Pop: 51,770
Clinton County
IA
-41.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+23.0
2024: R+18.8
Pop: 46,268
Ashtabula County
OH
-41.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+13.5
2024: R+28.3
Pop: 97,167
Robeson County
NC
-41.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+13.8
2024: R+27.6
Pop: 116,902
Jackson County
WI
-41.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+21.8
2024: R+19.5
Pop: 20,981
Juneau County
WI
-41.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.0
2024: R+32.1
Pop: 26,689
Crawford County
WI
-40.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+27.0
2024: R+13.8
Pop: 16,042
Marshall County
SD
-40.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+16.5
2024: R+24.0
Pop: 4,344
Woodruff County
AR
-39.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+7.5
2024: R+32.5
Pop: 6,026
Chippewa County
MN
-39.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+5.9
2024: R+34.0
Pop: 12,377
Union County
IA
-39.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+3.7
2024: R+36.1
Pop: 11,993
Webster County
IA
-39.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+8.5
2024: R+31.1
Pop: 36,886
Trumbull County
OH
-39.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.4
2024: R+16.7
Pop: 200,929
Mercer County
IL
-39.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+11.9
2024: R+27.1
Pop: 15,495
Tama County
IA
-39.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.2
2024: R+26.8
Pop: 16,868
Putnam County
IL
-38.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.6
2024: R+22.8
Pop: 5,601
Freeborn County
MN
-38.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+17.1
2024: R+21.3
Pop: 30,623
Lac qui Parle County
MN
-38.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+5.9
2024: R+32.2
Pop: 6,682
Des Moines County
IA
-38.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+23.0
2024: R+15.0
Pop: 38,487
Lincoln County
WI
-37.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.5
2024: R+25.1
Pop: 28,426
Traverse County
MN
-36.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+5.4
2024: R+31.5
Pop: 3,243
Jones County
IA
-36.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+10.4
2024: R+26.2
Pop: 20,896
Carroll County
IL
-36.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+4.8
2024: R+31.7
Pop: 15,576
LaPorte County
IN
-36.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.0
2024: R+14.1
Pop: 111,917
Roosevelt County
MT
-35.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+26.3
2024: R+9.6
Pop: 10,526
Aroostook County
ME
-35.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.6
2024: R+26.2
Pop: 67,058
Koochiching County
MN
-35.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+10.1
2024: R+25.6
Pop: 11,833
Sandusky County
OH
-35.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+4.6
2024: R+30.8
Pop: 58,778
Jasper County
IA
-35.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+7.5
2024: R+27.5
Pop: 37,954
Marquette County
WI
-34.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+5.3
2024: R+29.6
Pop: 15,746
Gogebic County
MI
-34.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+17.3
2024: R+17.1
Pop: 14,319
St. Lawrence County
NY
-34.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+16.3
2024: R+17.9
Pop: 107,226
Mower County
MN
-34.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+23.6
2024: R+10.5
Pop: 40,343
Mahnomen County
MN
-34.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+25.3
2024: R+8.7
Pop: 5,358
Vigo County
IN
-33.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.8
2024: R+18.0
Pop: 106,109
Richland County
WI
-33.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+20.6
2024: R+13.1
Pop: 17,205
Fillmore County
MN
-33.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+8.3
2024: R+25.4
Pop: 21,414
Corson County
SD
-33.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+21.5
2024: R+11.9
Pop: 3,806
Warren County
IL
-33.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+8.1
2024: R+25.1
Pop: 16,447
Itasca County
MN
-33.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.9
2024: R+20.1
Pop: 45,275
Somerset County
ME
-32.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+5.7
2024: R+27.0
Pop: 50,959
Cerro Gordo County
IA
-32.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+20.8
2024: R+11.6
Pop: 42,632
Whiteside County
IL
-32.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+17.6
2024: R+14.7
Pop: 54,947
Henry County
IL
-32.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+7.7
2024: R+24.4
Pop: 48,643
Coos County
NH
-32.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+18.3
2024: R+13.7
Pop: 31,271
Winneshiek County
IA
-31.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.7
2024: R+9.2
Pop: 19,873
Alexander County
IL
-31.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.6
2024: R+19.2
Pop: 4,875
Shiawassee County
MI
-31.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+8.6
2024: R+23.0
Pop: 67,991
Monroe County
MI
-31.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+4.3
2024: R+27.1
Pop: 155,505
Bremer County
IA
-31.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.3
2024: R+22.1
Pop: 25,204
Cedar County
IA
-31.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.6
2024: R+21.7
Pop: 18,349
Ottawa County
OH
-31.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+6.2
2024: R+25.0
Pop: 39,994
Franklin County
NY
-31.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.2
2024: R+9.0
Pop: 46,696
Cowlitz County
WA
-31.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+11.2
2024: R+19.8
Pop: 112,360
Dunn County
WI
-30.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+14.9
2024: R+15.9
Pop: 45,527
Conejos County
CO
-30.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.9
2024: R+17.8
Pop: 7,530
Delaware County
IN
-30.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.0
2024: R+15.7
Pop: 112,280
Muscatine County
IA
-30.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.6
2024: R+14.9
Pop: 42,559
Essex County
VT
-30.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+14.5
2024: R+15.9
Pop: 5,982
Hill County
MT
-30.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.2
2024: R+18.2
Pop: 16,155
Hardeman County
TN
-30.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+6.2
2024: R+24.1
Pop: 25,433
Bay County
MI
-30.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.3
2024: R+14.7
Pop: 103,008
Vernon County
WI
-29.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.0
2024: R+7.8
Pop: 31,049
Dubuque County
IA
-29.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+20.8
2024: R+8.6
Pop: 99,030
Recent Converts
Counties that voted Obama but came to Trump more recently (not all 3 Trump elections)
Starr County
TX
-85.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+69.3
2024: R+16.0
Pop: 66,067
Maverick County
TX
-75.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+57.0
2024: R+18.5
Pop: 58,082
Duval County
TX
-60.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+50.4
2024: R+9.8
Pop: 9,742
Zapata County
TX
-58.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+35.6
2024: R+22.4
Pop: 13,841
Culberson County
TX
-47.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+31.0
2024: R+16.9
Pop: 2,195
Webb County
TX
-45.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+43.4
2024: R+2.2
Pop: 269,294
Frio County
TX
-43.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+18.7
2024: R+24.5
Pop: 18,582
Willacy County
TX
-43.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+39.8
2024: R+3.3
Pop: 20,139
Reeves County
TX
-42.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+5.2
2024: R+36.9
Pop: 12,664
Hidalgo County
TX
-41.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+38.7
2024: R+2.9
Pop: 891,977
La Salle County
TX
-39.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+19.0
2024: R+20.5
Pop: 6,839
Big Horn County
MT
-37.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+36.2
2024: R+1.7
Pop: 12,891
Val Verde County
TX
-36.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.6
2024: R+26.6
Pop: 47,741
Mahoning County
OH
-35.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+26.5
2024: R+9.4
Pop: 226,491
Cameron County
TX
-34.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+28.8
2024: R+5.8
Pop: 426,120
Jasper County
SC
-32.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.9
2024: R+9.6
Pop: 32,166
Jim Wells County
TX
-31.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+16.1
2024: R+15.5
Pop: 38,850
Muskegon County
MI
-31.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+29.3
2024: R+1.8
Pop: 175,961
Ziebach County
SD
-30.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+27.2
2024: R+2.8
Pop: 2,377
Carlton County
MN
-29.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+26.8
2024: R+2.5
Pop: 36,518
Orleans County
VT
-29.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+27.5
2024: R+1.5
Pop: 27,606
Miami-Dade County
FL
-27.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+16.1
2024: R+11.4
Pop: 2,738,356
Imperial County
CA
-27.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+26.2
2024: R+0.9
Pop: 180,202
Marshall County
MS
-25.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+18.2
2024: R+7.3
Pop: 33,979
Cumberland County
NJ
-25.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+21.6
2024: R+3.8
Pop: 153,305
Blaine County
MT
-25.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+19.3
2024: R+5.9
Pop: 6,949
Clinton County
NY
-25.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.9
2024: R+2.1
Pop: 78,493
Alamosa County
CO
-24.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+14.1
2024: R+10.8
Pop: 16,581
Socorro County
NM
-24.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+21.1
2024: R+3.7
Pop: 16,200
Clarendon County
SC
-24.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.3
2024: R+12.3
Pop: 30,986
Passaic County
NJ
-24.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+21.7
2024: R+2.9
Pop: 521,012
Issaquena County
MS
-24.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.6
2024: R+1.4
Pop: 928
Winona County
MN
-24.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+19.1
2024: R+4.9
Pop: 49,779
Sauk County
WI
-23.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+21.9
2024: R+1.7
Pop: 66,009
Lorain County
OH
-23.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+17.8
2024: R+5.7
Pop: 317,129
Anson County
NC
-23.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+21.0
2024: R+2.5
Pop: 22,289
Surry County
VA
-22.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+22.3
2024: R+0.7
Pop: 6,549
Dillon County
SC
-22.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+11.4
2024: R+10.8
Pop: 27,862
Scotland County
NC
-22.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.1
2024: R+6.9
Pop: 33,590
Osceola County
FL
-21.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+19.7
2024: R+1.4
Pop: 427,415
Erie County
PA
-20.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+19.9
2024: R+1.0
Pop: 269,052
Saginaw County
MI
-20.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+17.3
2024: R+3.3
Pop: 188,665
Lake County
CA
-20.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+19.2
2024: R+1.4
Pop: 68,152
Pueblo County
CO
-20.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.0
2024: R+5.1
Pop: 169,356
Kleberg County
TX
-20.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+7.3
2024: R+12.7
Pop: 30,579
Sullivan County
NH
-18.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+18.0
2024: R+0.7
Pop: 43,715
Pasquotank County
NC
-18.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+13.7
2024: R+4.9
Pop: 40,834
Burke County
GA
-18.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.2
2024: R+9.3
Pop: 24,470
Scott County
IA
-18.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+14.5
2024: R+3.9
Pop: 174,608
Atlantic County
NJ
-18.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.1
2024: R+3.0
Pop: 276,270
Rockland County
NY
-17.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+5.9
2024: R+11.7
Pop: 341,883
Kennebec County
ME
-17.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+14.8
2024: R+2.7
Pop: 126,808
Monroe County
PA
-17.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+16.3
2024: R+0.8
Pop: 167,515
Desha County
AR
-16.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.2
2024: R+4.8
Pop: 10,786
Jefferson County
GA
-16.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+15.0
2024: R+1.2
Pop: 15,341
Gloucester County
NJ
-15.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.2
2024: R+2.8
Pop: 306,954
Latah County
ID
-14.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+6.8
2024: R+8.0
Pop: 41,049
Jasper County
MS
-14.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.7
2024: R+5.0
Pop: 16,059
Blue Earth County
MN
-14.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+13.0
2024: R+1.2
Pop: 69,871
Northampton County
PA
-14.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.3
2024: R+1.8
Pop: 318,580
Pinellas County
FL
-13.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+8.3
2024: R+5.2
Pop: 963,481
Tensas Parish
LA
-13.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.2
2024: R+4.3
Pop: 3,935
St. James Parish
LA
-13.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+12.4
2024: R+0.9
Pop: 19,528
Copiah County
MS
-13.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+7.0
2024: R+6.1
Pop: 27,855
Merced County
CA
-12.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+8.3
2024: R+4.3
Pop: 290,201
Stanislaus County
CA
-12.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+1.7
2024: R+10.9
Pop: 553,990
Nassau County
NY
-12.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+8.4
2024: R+4.1
Pop: 1,389,591
Prince Edward County
VA
-12.4
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.9
2024: R+2.6
Pop: 21,996
Iberville Parish
LA
-11.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+11.2
2024: R+0.7
Pop: 29,815
San Joaquin County
CA
-11.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+10.6
2024: R+0.9
Pop: 797,334
Nicollet County
MN
-11.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+10.5
2024: R+0.5
Pop: 34,411
Hillsborough County
FL
-10.2
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+7.1
2024: R+3.0
Pop: 1,522,748
Yazoo County
MS
-9.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+7.2
2024: R+2.4
Pop: 24,835
Bucks County
PA
-8.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+8.6
2024: R+0.1
Pop: 647,461
San Bernardino County
CA
-8.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+6.3
2024: R+2.1
Pop: 2,197,104
Marengo County
AL
-7.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+3.6
2024: R+3.8
Pop: 18,851
Pike County
MS
-6.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+3.5
2024: R+3.5
Pop: 39,602
Baldwin County
GA
-6.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+4.6
2024: R+2.2
Pop: 43,642
Fresno County
CA
-6.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+2.1
2024: R+4.4
Pop: 1,016,725
Washington County
GA
-6.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+4.4
2024: R+1.9
Pop: 19,849
Riverside County
CA
-3.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+2.3
2024: R+1.3
Pop: 2,478,600
Oktibbeha County
MS
-0.3
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+0.0
2024: R+0.3
Pop: 51,771
Swing-Back Counties
Counties that went Obama → Trump 2016 → Biden 2020 → Harris 2024 (returned to Democrats)
Kent County
RI
-15.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+17.5
2024: D+1.9
Pop: 171,456
Clay County
MN
-15.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+16.0
2024: D+0.5
Pop: 66,059
Door County
WI
-15.1
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+17.3
2024: D+2.2
Pop: 30,445
Essex County
NY
-12.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+13.3
2024: D+0.5
Pop: 36,973
Rensselaer County
NY
-8.0
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.3
2024: D+1.3
Pop: 160,332
Kent County
DE
-7.8
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+9.8
2024: D+2.0
Pop: 187,604
Broome County
NY
-7.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+8.0
2024: D+0.4
Pop: 197,378
Montgomery County
OH
-5.7
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+6.2
2024: D+0.5
Pop: 536,096
Saratoga County
NY
-1.6
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+3.4
2024: D+1.8
Pop: 238,284
Hillsborough County
NH
-0.9
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+3.8
2024: D+2.9
Pop: 426,378
Chesapeake city
VA
+2.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+1.3
2024: D+3.8
Pop: 252,583
Clallam County
WA
+4.5
total swing
08
12
16
20
24
2008: D+3.3
2024: D+7.8
Pop: 77,813
The Great Realignment
The Obama-to-Trump pivot counties represent one of the most significant political realignments in modern American history. These counties, often characterized by working-class demographics, declining manufacturing employment, and lower college attainment rates, shifted dramatically toward Republicans between 2012 and 2016.
The pattern held through 2020 and 2024, suggesting these aren't temporary swings but durable realignments. Key regions include the Upper Midwest (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio), Appalachian coal country, and parts of the industrial Northeast.
Reading the Voting History
D
Democratic winR
Republican winYears shown: 08 (2008), 12 (2012), 16 (2016), 20 (2020), 24 (2024)