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January 202614 min·Kenton Tilford

The Answer to Machine Politics

How Mamdani Beat Cuomo in Working-Class NYC

In the 2025 NYC mayoral primary, a DSA socialist beat the establishment Democrat in working-class immigrant neighborhoods—the same communities trending Republican. AD-level analysis.

January 202612 min·Kenton Tilford

Peltola vs. Sullivan

The Math Behind Alaska's 2026 Senate Race

Mary Peltola ran 10 points ahead of Harris in 2024. Can she translate that crossover appeal into a Senate win against Dan Sullivan? Borough-by-borough analysis.

January 202615 min·Kenton Tilford

America's 13 Nations

How Cultural Geography Predicts the Vote

Interactive analysis of Colin Woodard's American Nations framework. Spanish Caribbean swung R+13.7, New France resisted at R+2.9. Explore the cultural maps that explain why.

January 202618 min·Kenton Tilford

Trump, the Machine Politician

A County-Level Regression Analysis

A 16-variable regression reveals Trump's 2024 coalition wasn't ideological—it was transactional. Non-English speaking % dominated with beta=-2.16, 2x stronger than any other predictor.

January 202610 min·Kenton Tilford

Akashic Edge 2026 Race Ratings

Our Inaugural Forecasts for Senate, House & Governors

Our first-ever race ratings for the 2026 cycle. No toss-ups—we lean one way or the other on every race. Unlike forecasters who hedge as elections approach, we're planting our flag early and standing by it.

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