Biggest Shifts20202024

Which Places Shifted Most in 2024?

Lake and Peninsula Borough, AK swung 29.5 points toward Republicans—the biggest county shift in the nation.

Trump made major inroads in communities with bloc voting patterns—particularly areas with higher shares of non-English speakers where he invested heavily in outreach. Harris gained in places attracting liberal migration: Atlanta suburbs, Asheville, mid-size Pacific Northwest cities like Bend, and a few small conservative communities that may have maxed out on the GOP.

Between 2020 and 2024, most U.S. counties shifted toward Republicans. The biggest GOP swings came from communities with bloc voting patterns—South Texas border counties, Orthodox Jewish enclaves, and other tight-knit groups Trump actively courted. Democratic gains were smaller and concentrated in areas experiencing liberal in-migration: Atlanta's exurbs, Asheville, mountain towns in the Pacific Northwest, and some deeply red rural counties that may have hit a GOP ceiling.

View By Geography

County-level presidential vote swing

Sorted by percentage point swing

Biggest Swings Toward Republicans

#CountySwing20202024Votes
1Lake and Peninsula BoroughAK*R+29.5%D+19.0R+10.5468
2Maverick CountyTXR+27.9%D+9.5R+18.515,745
3Webb CountyTXR+25.4%D+23.3R+2.265,937
4Imperial CountyCAR+25.2%D+24.4R+0.954,025
5Hoonah-Angoon Census AreaAK*R+24.5%D+43.8D+19.31,339
6Bronx CountyNYR+22.6%D+67.5D+44.9364,061
7Queens CountyNYR+21.1%D+45.2D+24.1715,964
8Starr CountyTXR+21.0%D+5.0R+16.016,431
9Dimmit CountyTXR+20.7%D+24.0D+3.33,427
10El Paso CountyTXR+20.0%D+35.1D+15.1252,005
11Northwest Arctic BoroughAK*R+19.9%D+15.4R+4.51,582
12Hidalgo CountyTXR+19.9%D+17.1R+2.9217,265
13Culberson CountyTXR+19.6%D+2.7R+16.9781
14Passaic CountyNJR+19.5%D+16.7R+2.9203,351
15Cameron CountyTXR+18.9%D+13.2R+5.8116,309
16Miami-Dade CountyFLR+18.8%D+7.3R+11.41,097,209
17Hudson CountyNJR+18.7%D+46.6D+27.9232,232
18Kusilvak Census AreaAK*R+18.0%D+34.1D+16.11,640
19Zapata CountyTXR+17.1%R+5.3R+22.44,871
20Zavala CountyTXR+17.0%D+31.4D+14.43,492
21Frio CountyTXR+16.9%R+7.6R+24.54,939
22Santa Cruz CountyAZR+16.9%D+35.5D+18.619,167
23Val Verde CountyTXR+16.6%R+9.9R+26.614,612
24Bethel Census AreaAK*R+15.9%D+28.0D+12.14,411
25Osceola CountyFLR+15.3%D+13.8R+1.4173,289
26Hendry CountyFLR+15.2%R+23.0R+38.213,487
27Willacy CountyTXR+15.2%D+11.9R+3.35,563
28Sutter CountyCAR+15.0%R+16.4R+31.439,339
29Merced CountyCAR+14.9%D+10.5R+4.386,684
30Kenedy CountyTXR+14.9%R+32.0R+46.8158
31San Joaquin CountyCAR+14.7%D+13.8R+0.9264,916
32Apache CountyAZR+14.7%D+33.6D+18.932,096
33Richmond CountyNYR+14.4%R+14.9R+29.3200,558
34Yuma CountyAZR+14.2%R+6.2R+20.468,195
35Middlesex CountyNJR+14.2%D+22.2D+8.0366,639
36Rio Arriba CountyNMR+14.2%D+33.6D+19.415,989
37Mora CountyNMR+14.1%D+31.4D+17.32,487
38McKinley CountyNMR+14.1%D+38.6D+24.525,867
39Guadalupe CountyNMR+13.8%D+14.5D+0.71,938
40Nassau CountyNYR+13.7%D+9.6R+4.2715,715
41Reeves CountyTXR+13.7%R+23.3R+36.93,439
42Rockland CountyNYR+13.4%D+1.7R+11.7150,825
43Dillingham Census AreaAK*R+13.2%D+7.0R+6.21,537
44Manassas Park cityVAR+13.2%D+33.1D+19.95,997
45Bergen CountyNJR+13.2%D+16.5D+3.4460,685
46Uvalde CountyTXR+13.1%R+20.3R+33.49,772
47Tulare CountyCAR+12.9%R+7.8R+20.7138,309
48Broward CountyFLR+12.9%D+29.8D+16.9877,262
49San Bernardino CountyCAR+12.8%D+10.7R+2.1761,714
50Costilla CountyCOR+12.6%D+27.2D+14.72,080

Biggest Swings Toward Democrats

#CountySwing20202024Votes
1Henry CountyGAD+9.1%D+20.4D+29.5129,774
2San Juan CountyCOD+7.0%D+24.9D+31.9589
3Chaffee CountyCOD+6.7%D+6.8D+13.614,423
4Loving CountyTXD+6.5%R+84.8R+78.397
5Rockdale CountyGAD+6.4%D+40.8D+47.245,471
6Douglas CountyGAD+6.1%D+25.1D+31.371,153
7Kaufman CountyTXD+6.0%R+33.8R+27.869,538
8Petersburg BoroughAK*D+5.8%R+24.5R+18.71,769
9Hyde CountySDD+5.3%R+60.3R+55.0695
10Paulding CountyGAD+5.0%R+29.1R+24.095,524
11Ellis CountyOKD+4.9%R+81.5R+76.61,812
12Oliver CountyNDD+4.7%R+74.0R+69.31,087
13Island CountyWAD+4.5%D+12.0D+16.452,449
14Clallam CountyWAD+4.5%D+3.4D+7.848,663
15Blaine CountyNED+4.3%R+77.3R+73.0292
16Billings CountyNDD+4.3%R+73.9R+69.5647
17Henderson CountyNCD+4.3%R+18.8R+14.569,974
18Spalding CountyGAD+4.3%R+20.8R+16.633,208
19Wheeler CountyORD+4.2%R+51.2R+47.0868
20Newton CountyGAD+4.1%D+10.9D+15.059,477
21Rio Blanco CountyCOD+4.0%R+67.7R+63.73,692
22Union CountyNMD+4.0%R+56.2R+52.21,665
23Hancock CountyIND+3.9%R+37.5R+33.644,584
24Montrose CountyCOD+3.9%R+36.5R+32.625,626
25Kidder CountyNDD+3.8%R+68.1R+64.31,398
26Mesa CountyCOD+3.7%R+28.0R+24.391,620
27Jefferson CountyWAD+3.6%D+41.4D+45.124,698
28Fayette CountyGAD+3.6%R+6.8R+3.174,956
29Clear Creek CountyCOD+3.6%D+13.0D+16.66,102
30Buncombe CountyNCD+3.6%D+21.1D+24.7160,510
31Rockingham CountyVAD+3.6%R+40.4R+36.848,853
32Los Alamos CountyNMD+3.5%D+26.6D+30.212,187
33Transylvania CountyNCD+3.5%R+15.6R+12.120,780
34Wallace CountyKSD+3.5%R+88.0R+84.5750
35Gilpin CountyCOD+3.4%D+9.3D+12.74,130
36Walton CountyGAD+3.4%R+49.2R+45.858,494
37Staunton cityVAD+3.4%D+9.9D+13.313,626
38Williamsburg cityVAD+3.2%D+41.1D+44.37,894
39Hinsdale CountyCOD+3.1%R+15.5R+12.4607
40Jackson CountyGAD+3.1%R+58.0R+54.947,375
41Ellis CountyTXD+3.0%R+34.0R+31.099,818
42Sheridan CountyNED+3.0%R+72.7R+69.72,497
43Grant CountyOKD+3.0%R+73.5R+70.52,125
44New Kent CountyVAD+2.9%R+34.6R+31.716,807
45Canadian CountyOKD+2.9%R+43.3R+40.473,074
46Dickens CountyTXD+2.9%R+73.2R+70.3993
47Johnston CountyNCD+2.9%R+24.3R+21.5124,678
48Barrow CountyGAD+2.9%R+43.1R+40.344,157
49Dawson CountyGAD+2.8%R+67.9R+65.019,623
50Gaston CountyNCD+2.8%R+27.8R+25.0119,256

* Alaska estimates: Alaska does not report results by borough. County-level figures are estimates calculated by allocating district-level absentee and early votes to boroughs proportionally based on Election Day precinct results.

Other Election Years

Related Analysis