Mary Peltola ran 11 points ahead of Kamala Harris in 2024. She lost her House seat to Nick Begich III by just 2.2 points—in a year Trump won Alaska by 13. Now she's challenging incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. Can her crossover appeal translate into a Senate upset?
The numbers suggest it's possible. Alaska uses for federal races, which rewards candidates with broad appeal. Peltola—the first Alaska Native in Congress and the only Democrat endorsed by the NRA in 2024—has exactly that. Sullivan won his first term in 2014 by just R+2.1 against Mark Begich. The math says this race is closer than it looks.
The Peltola Premium by Borough
How much better did Peltola do than Harris in each borough? The Premium column shows her crossover appeal—positive means she outperformed the top of the ticket.
| Borough | Pres '16 | Pres '20 | Sen '20 | House '22 | Pres '24 | House '24 | Share | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R+5.3 | D+1.1 | R+4.1 | D+11.1 | D+1.4 | D+10.1 | 39.3% | +8.7 | |
| R+51.5 | R+47.7 | R+48.5 | R+40.8 | R+48.0 | R+37.1 | 16.4% | +10.9 | |
| R+20.5 | R+14.9 | R+16.8 | R+4.5 | R+17.9 | R+5.4 | 12.9% | +12.5 | |
| R+37.2 | R+32.0 | R+32.7 | R+24.4 | R+34.2 | R+23.4 | 9.9% | +10.8 | |
| D+18.8 | D+25.4 | D+24.6 | D+39.4 | D+25.5 | D+35.2 | 5.1% | +9.7 | |
| R+22.5 | R+20.8 | R+21.2 | R+10.2 | R+18.6 | R+7.8 | 1.9% | +10.8 | |
| R+21.6 | R+18.4 | R+19.4 | R+3.5 | R+17.3 | R+4.4 | 1.8% | +12.9 | |
| D+33.0 | D+28.0 | D+27.0 | D+67.3 | D+12.1 | D+37.7 | 1.3% | +25.7 | |
| D+8.2 | D+10.8 | D+15.3 | D+30.2 | D+10.7 | D+21.9 | 1.2% | +11.2 | |
| R+52.1 | R+53.5 | R+55.8 | R+53.1 | R+63.8 | R+53.0 | 1.1% | +10.8 | |
| R+12.5 | D+7.1 | D+7.6 | D+5.6 | R+4.8 | D+5.0 | 1.0% | +9.8 | |
| R+21.0 | R+17.3 | R+15.5 | D+7.6 | R+17.2 | R+2.0 | 0.9% | +15.2 | |
| D+22.4 | D+21.5 | R+4.1 | D+50.2 | D+9.2 | D+36.0 | 0.8% | +26.8 | |
| D+19.7 | D+31.1 | D+6.8 | D+44.0 | D+21.4 | D+39.6 | 0.7% | +18.2 | |
| D+1.2 | D+18.9 | D+16.9 | D+22.2 | D+8.5 | D+20.1 | 0.5% | +11.6 | |
| D+13.3 | R+2.9 | R+23.5 | D+36.7 | R+14.3 | D+21.1 | 0.5% | +35.4 | |
| R+19.3 | R+24.5 | R+10.9 | R+6.4 | R+18.7 | R+1.6 | 0.5% | +17.1 | |
| D+40.9 | D+34.1 | D+21.0 | D+70.8 | D+16.1 | D+39.4 | 0.5% | +23.3 | |
| D+27.9 | D+15.4 | R+6.2 | D+42.6 | R+4.5 | D+26.6 | 0.5% | +31.0 | |
| D+17.6 | D+7.0 | D+16.4 | D+47.3 | R+6.2 | D+22.1 | 0.5% | +28.3 | |
| R+40.4 | R+38.0 | R+35.0 | R+21.2 | R+43.0 | R+22.4 | 0.4% | +20.7 | |
| D+19.3 | D+43.8 | D+41.4 | D+39.6 | D+19.3 | D+33.1 | 0.4% | +13.8 | |
| R+13.6 | R+14.4 | R+16.6 | R+2.3 | R+22.2 | R+6.7 | 0.4% | +15.5 | |
| R+42.0 | R+32.0 | R+33.0 | R+27.8 | R+33.4 | R+20.7 | 0.3% | +12.7 | |
| D+24.0 | D+9.4 | R+4.8 | D+6.8 | D+0.0 | D+5.9 | 0.3% | +5.9 | |
| D+22.0 | D+50.5 | D+52.2 | D+63.2 | D+45.5 | D+49.6 | 0.3% | +4.2 | |
| D+5.3 | D+19.0 | D+11.5 | D+35.5 | R+10.5 | D+18.4 | 0.1% | +28.9 | |
| R+22.5 | R+26.2 | R+34.2 | R+47.9 | R+35.5 | R+37.0 | 0.1% | -1.5 | |
| D+0.5 | D+23.1 | D+23.3 | D+48.0 | D+18.8 | D+29.3 | 0.1% | +10.6 | |
| R+28.8 | R+22.9 | R+28.1 | D+3.8 | R+27.9 | R+6.0 | 0.1% | +21.9 | |
| Statewide | R+14.8 | R+10.2 | R+13.5 | R+0.3 | R+13.1 | R+2.2 | 100% | +11.1 |
Peltola Premium = House 2024 margin − Pres 2024 margin. A positive premium means Peltola outperformed Harris. Sullivan won in 2020 by R+13.5, while Peltola lost in 2024 by only R+2.2—a much closer margin showing her crossover appeal.
What the Polls Say
Early polling shows a tight race. Peltola has led in most surveys since announcing, though all results are within the margin of error.
Recent Polls
| Pollster | Dates | Peltola | Sullivan | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey ResearchB | Jan 8-11, 2026 | 48% | 46.4% | D+1.6 | 1,988 RV ±2.2% |
Alaska Survey ResearchB | Oct 10-15, 2025 | 48% | 46% | D+2.0 | 1,908 LV ±2.5% |
Data for ProgressB- | Oct 17-23, 2025 | 45% | 46% | R+1.0 | 823 LV ±3% |
Data for ProgressB- | Jul 21-27, 2025 | 45% | 46% | R+1.0 | 678 LV ±4% |
What the Markets Say
Prediction markets offer real-money forecasts. Compare them to our assessment.
Where the Votes Are
Alaska's politics divide into four regions. Each has different dynamics—and different opportunities for Peltola to find the D+2.23 improvement she needs.
Urban Centers
Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau
3 boroughs
Suburban
Mat-Su, Kenai, SE Fairbanks
3 boroughs
Rural Alaska
Southeast islands, Kodiak, Aleutians
13 boroughs
Native Alaska
Yup'ik, Inupiat, Aleut, Tlingit, and Athabascan communities
11 boroughs
The Math Problem
Peltola dominates in Native Alaska (+25.1 premium vs Harris) but it's only 5.5% of the vote. Urban areas have 57.3% of the vote. Suburban areas have 27.3% and vote heavily Republican. To win in 2026, she needs to find D+2.23 improvement statewide—where does it come from?
Borough-by-Borough Results
Explore Alaska's political geography. Toggle between Peltola's House performance, Harris's presidential results, or the Peltola Premium.
Peltola's Path to Victory
Recover Native margins — Her biggest 2022→2024 falloff was in Native communities (Bethel: D+67 → D+39). Nick Begich had Native ties Sullivan lacks. Room to recover.
Expand Anchorage lead — She won D+10.4, needs D+12.7 for a tie. With 39% of statewide vote, this is the battleground.
Leverage unique positioning — NRA endorsed, championed Willow Project, pro-gun, pro-drilling. Can't abandon these and win.
Attack on Denali — Trump's renaming order is 2-to-1 unpopular. Only 31% see Sullivan as "independent"; 53% see him as "partisan voice for Trump."
Sullivan's Path to Victory
Hold Anchorage to single digits — He won R+4 in 2020; Peltola won D+10.4 in 2024. If she expands to D+15+, his path closes.
Show independence from Trump — He opposes the Denali renaming. Needs to pick spots to distance himself in a state where 69% support abortion rights.
Frame Peltola as a loser — She lost her House seat. Running as a two-time loser if she doesn't win Senate.
Lean into Alaska's contrarian streak — In 1994's GOP wave, Alaska was the only state where Republicans lost a governorship. Position as the contrarian choice.
The Bottom Line
Peltola's crossover appeal is real. She needs to expand her Anchorage lead and recover Native margins while maintaining her pro-gun, pro-drilling positioning. Sullivan will bet on Alaska's structural Republican lean. Peltola will bet on her personal brand transcending partisan gravity.
Our Rating
Tilt Peltola
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Leans Republican
We give Peltola ~55% odds. Two factors: (1) 2026 should be a better Democratic environment than 2024—midterms typically punish the party in power. (2) Sullivan isn't stronger than Begich, who had Native ties Sullivan lacks. Her 11-point overperformance vs. Harris shows genuine crossover appeal. In a race that could go either way, we'd rather be Peltola.
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