Akashic Edge 2026 Race Ratings
Our Inaugural Forecasts for Senate, House & Governors
Our Philosophy: No Toss-Ups
Welcome to Akashic Edge's inaugural race ratings for the 2026 cycle. Before we dive into the races, let's talk about what makes our approach different.
We don't do toss-ups. Every race gets a lean—Democratic or Republican. Why? Because "toss-up" is often a cop-out. It's what forecasters say when they don't want to be wrong. We'd rather plant our flag and be judged on our calls than hide behind uncertainty.
We don't chase the news cycle. Other forecasters adjust their ratings every time a poll drops or a gaffe goes viral. We're making our calls early—22 months before Election Day—and we're standing by them. Check back in November 2026 and see how we did.
Our Rating Scale
Tilt = 50-55% confidence. Lean = 55-70%. Likely = 70-85%. Safe = 85%+.
Senate: Democrats Defending in Hostile Territory
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats after their 2024 sweep. Democrats need to flip 4 seats to reclaim the majority (with VP tiebreaker in 2029). The map is challenging but not impossible—22 of the 35 seats up are Republican-held, many in states that have trended blue.
Our key calls:
- Alaska (Tilt D): Sullivan is vulnerable. Murkowski's coalition proved crossover appeal works in Alaska. Peltola's overperformance shows the template.
- Maine (Tilt D): Collins won in 2020, but Maine has only gotten bluer. At 73, this might be her last race—and Democrats smell blood.
- North Carolina (Lean D): Tillis won by just 1.8% in 2020. The state is competitive, and Democrats have bench strength from their 2024 gubernatorial win.
- Iowa (Tilt R): Open seat after Grassley. Iowa has trended red, but the seat is competitive in a good Democratic environment.
| Race | Rating | Incumbent | 2024 Pres |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Tilt D | Dan Sullivan (R) | R+12.7 |
| Maine | Tilt D | Susan Collins (R) | D+7.2 |
| Michigan | Tilt D | Gary Peters (D) | D+1.2 |
| North Carolina | Lean D | Thom Tillis (R) | R+2.6 |
| Georgia | Lean D | Jon Ossoff (D) | R+2.6 |
| Iowa | Tilt R | OPEN | R+9.0 |
| Minnesota | Likely D | Tina Smith (D) | D+4.9 |
| New Hampshire | Likely D | OPEN | D+4.0 |
| Texas | Likely R | John Cornyn (R) | R+10.5 |
| Montana | Likely R | Steve Daines (R) | R+18.3 |
Governors: Wide-Open Battleground
36 governorships are up in 2026, evenly split between the parties. Many feature open seats from term-limited incumbents, creating genuine uncertainty.
Races to watch:
- Ohio (Tilt D): DeWine is term-limited. Yes, Ohio went R+11 in 2024, but Sherrod Brown proved Democrats can still win statewide—and governors races play differently.
- Michigan (Tilt D): Open seat after Whitmer. Democrats have dominated statewide races since 2018, but the presidential result was a warning sign.
- Vermont (Likely R): Phil Scott is a Republican in a D+31 state. That's not a typo. He wins because he's Phil Scott, not because of party.
- Kansas (Lean R): Laura Kelly (D) is term-limited in a R+16 state. Republicans should win, but Kansas has surprised before (see: abortion referendum).
| Race | Rating | Incumbent | 2024 Pres |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Tilt D | Mike Dunleavy (R) | R+13.1 |
| Arizona | Tilt D | Katie Hobbs (D) | R+5.5 |
| Iowa | Tilt D | OPEN | R+13.2 |
| Michigan | Tilt D | OPEN | R+1.4 |
| New Mexico | Tilt D | OPEN | D+6.0 |
| Ohio | Tilt D | OPEN | R+11.2 |
| Georgia | Tilt R | OPEN | R+2.2 |
| New Hampshire | Tilt R | Kelly Ayotte (R) | D+2.8 |
| Nevada | Tilt R | OPEN | R+3.1 |
| Wisconsin | Lean D | Tony Evers (D) | R+0.9 |
| Kansas | Lean R | OPEN | R+16.0 |
| Vermont | Likely R | Phil Scott (R) | D+31.5 |
House: Republicans Defend a Slim Majority
Republicans hold a narrow 220-215 majority. Midterms historically punish the president's party, and with Trump in the White House, Democrats have history on their side.
We identify ~55 competitive seats. Of these, 15 are currently rated Tilt D (mostly Republican-held seats in Biden districts), while only 2 are Tilt R.
Key battlegrounds:
- Pennsylvania: 4 competitive seats (PA-01, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10). Fitzpatrick (PA-01) is the most endangered House Republican—a moderate in a Biden +2 district.
- Michigan: 2 competitive seats (MI-07, MI-10). Both freshmen Republicans in swingy districts.
- Iowa: 2 competitive seats (IA-01, IA-03). Both won by <1% in 2024.
| Race | Rating | Incumbent | 2024 Pres |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa 1st | Tilt D | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | R+3.6 |
| Iowa 3rd | Tilt D | Zachary Nunn (R) | R+1.9 |
| Michigan 7th | Tilt D | Tom Barrett (R) | R+0.9 |
| Michigan 10th | Tilt D | John James (R) | R+3.4 |
| New Jersey 7th | Tilt D | Thomas Kean Jr. (R) | R+1.6 |
| Pennsylvania 1st | Tilt D | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | D+1.8 |
| Pennsylvania 7th | Tilt D | Ryan MacKenzie (R) | R+1.2 |
| Virginia 2nd | Tilt D | Jennifer Kiggans (R) | R+1.0 |
| Wisconsin 1st | Tilt D | Bryan Steil (R) | R+2.5 |
| Pennsylvania 8th | Tilt R | Rob Bresnahan (R) | R+4.7 |
| Arizona 1st | Lean D | David Schweikert (R) | R+3.4 |
| Arizona 6th | Lean D | Juan Ciscomani (R) | R+2.4 |
| Colorado 8th | Lean D | Gabe Evans (R) | D+1.1 |
| Nebraska 2nd | Lean D | Don Bacon (R) | D+2.8 |
The Bottom Line
It's January 2026—22 months until Election Day. A lot will change. Candidates will emerge. Scandals will break. The economy will do whatever the economy does.
But here's our stake in the ground:
- Senate:Democrats have a narrow path to 50 seats. We see 4-5 genuinely competitive races, with Democrats slight favorites in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina.
- House:Democrats are favored to gain seats, potentially flipping the chamber. Midterm dynamics favor the out-party, and Republicans are defending in tough territory.
- Governors:The most volatile map. Ohio and Michigan are the marquee races, but expect surprises in open-seat contests across the country.
These ratings are locked in. We'll revisit them after Election Day 2026 and grade ourselves honestly. That's the Akashic Edge difference: accountability over hedging.
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