- Lead
- 131,639
- Total
- 353,416
- vs nation
- D+38.7
California 10th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 197,819
- Total
- 406,052
- vs nation
- D+44.3
- Lead
- 180,751
- Total
- 328,192
- vs nation
- D+53.0
- Lead
- 144,991
- Total
- 300,618
- vs nation
- D+44.4
- Lead
- 145,700
- Total
- 312,446
- vs nation
- D+39.4
- Lead
- 103,782
- Total
- 284,319
- vs nation
- D+39.0
- Lead
- 80,301
- Total
- 253,974
- vs nation
- D+31.1
- Lead
- 71,033
- Total
- 238,901
- vs nation
- D+21.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+37.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 1,035,0002024 5-year
- Population density
- 3,755 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 276 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $164,9522024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 18.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 20.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+55.1 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.8 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 15, CA · twin score 95.9
presidential history
Party record book
California 10th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
74.2%
243,668 votes · D+55.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 73.4%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
74.7%
8,029 votes · R+58.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 74.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
298,001votes
73.4% of the vote · D+48.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 243,668 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
125,850votes
50.2% of the vote · R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 118,068 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
+53.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+55.1 · U.S. D+2.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +44.4 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1908
+40.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+49.7 · U.S. R+9.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 · +39.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
California's SD-10 posts presidential margins well above the statewide Democratic baseline, reflecting a dense, highly educated urban electorate concentrated along the Bay Area's inner core where ticket-splitting is uncommon.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 55.1 points in 2016 and a Republican high of 61.8 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 11.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 37.2 points.
A population of 1,035,000, a 18% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $164,952 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 15 and State Senate District 11.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
California 10th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/06010/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.