HarrisDemocratic47.1%1,194TrumpRepublican47.9%1,215OtherAll other candidates5.0%126
R+0.8- Lead
- 21
- Total
- 2,535
- vs nation
- D+0.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic49.9%1,203TrumpRepublican46.4%1,118OtherAll other candidates3.7%88
D+3.5- Lead
- 85
- Total
- 2,409
- vs nation
- R+0.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic43.0%913TrumpRepublican43.0%911OtherAll other candidates14.0%297
D+0.1- Lead
- 2
- Total
- 2,121
- vs nation
- R+2.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic54.7%984RomneyRepublican39.3%707OtherAll other candidates6.1%109
D+15.4- Lead
- 277
- Total
- 1,800
- vs nation
- D+11.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic54.3%1,045McCainRepublican41.5%798OtherAll other candidates4.2%81
D+12.8- Lead
- 247
- Total
- 1,924
- vs nation
- D+5.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic41.3%754BushRepublican47.0%859OtherAll other candidates11.7%214
R+5.7- Lead
- 105
- Total
- 1,827
- vs nation
- R+3.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic27.5%631BushRepublican38.9%894OtherAll other candidates33.6%772
R+11.4- Lead
- 122
- Total
- 2,297
- vs nation
- R+12.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic23.1%590DoleRepublican21.3%544OtherAll other candidates55.6%1,420
Other win- Lead
- 830
- Total
- 2,554
- vs nation
- R+6.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+0.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 4,4712024 5-year
- Population density
- 27 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 167 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $67,7632024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+15.4 in 2012MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+74.3 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Orange-1 State House District, VT · twin score 98.9
presidential history
Party record book
Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
54.7%
984 votes · D+15.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 54.3%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
87.0%
829 votes · R+74.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 85.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
1,203votes
49.9% of the vote · D+3.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 1,194 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,215votes
47.9% of the vote · R+0.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,118 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+11.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+15.4 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · +5.6 pts
Republican
Alf Landon1936
+79.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+54.7 · U.S. D+24.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Thomas E. Dewey, 1944 · +66.4 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RJoseph ParsonsState House · Orange-Caledonia
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
This small rural district straddling Orange and Caledonia counties swung within a single percentage point in the 2024 presidential race, reflecting the competitive tension between Vermont's traditionally independent rural towns and its broader statewide lean.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 15.4 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 74.3 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.8 points.
A population of 4,471, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $67,763 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Orange-1 State House District and Orange-2 State House District.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Orange-1 State House District
Vermont
98.9twin score
population scalemedian age% unaffiliated
Orange-2 State House District
Vermont
96.3twin score
population scale% unaffiliated2008–2012 trajectory≠ median income
Orange-3 State House District
Vermont
95.2twin score
population scale% unaffiliated2008–2012 trajectory≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/50ORC/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Vermont at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District
counties it covers2
Frequently asked questions
How did Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District voted Republican by 0.8 points (R+0.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,535 votes cast, 1,194 went Democratic and 1,215 went Republican.
When did Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District?
Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District has a population of 4,471 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District?
Median household income in Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District is $67,763 — below the national median of $80,734. The Vermont state median is $81,203.
What is the political history of Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Vermont Orange-Caledonia State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 29 went Republican.