- Lead
- 13
- Total
- 7,915
- vs nation
- D+1.6
Rhode Island 38th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 90
- Total
- 7,484
- vs nation
- R+3.3
- Lead
- 427
- Total
- 6,453
- vs nation
- R+8.7
- Lead
- 22
- Total
- 6,049
- vs nation
- R+4.2
- Lead
- 232
- Total
- 6,324
- vs nation
- R+3.6
- Lead
- 276
- Total
- 6,066
- vs nation
- R+2.1
- Lead
- 71
- Total
- 5,413
- vs nation
- R+1.8
- Lead
- 236
- Total
- 4,706
- vs nation
- R+3.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+0.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 13,9882024 5-year
- Population density
- 345 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 40.5 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $89,2392024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 88.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+24.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+72.3 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 39, RI · twin score 91.5
presidential history
Party record book
Rhode Island 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
62.3%
1,455 votes · D+24.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 50.9%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
82.7%
767 votes · R+66.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 · 82.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
3,875votes
49.0% of the vote · D+0.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 3,696 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
3,862votes
48.8% of the vote · D+0.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 3,606 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+2.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+24.6 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +1.6 pts
Republican
Alf Landon1936
+66.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+42.1 · U.S. D+24.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · +66.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 60.1%4,679 | 39.9%3,105 | 7,784 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of just 0.2 points, this small Providence-area district swings on a handful of precincts, making it a reliable bellwether for statewide shifts in competitive cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 24.6 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 72.3 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.2 points.
A population of 13,988, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $89,239 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 39 and State House District 37.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Rhode Island 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/44038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.