- Lead
- 997
- Total
- 3,268
- vs nation
- D+32.0
New Hampshire State House District Strafford 15
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,282
- Total
- 3,103
- vs nation
- D+36.9
- Lead
- 943
- Total
- 2,793
- vs nation
- D+31.7
- Lead
- 978
- Total
- 2,683
- vs nation
- D+32.6
- Lead
- 1,127
- Total
- 2,711
- vs nation
- D+34.3
- Lead
- 767
- Total
- 2,497
- vs nation
- D+33.2
- Lead
- 549
- Total
- 2,038
- vs nation
- D+26.4
- Lead
- 680
- Total
- 1,775
- vs nation
- D+29.8
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+30.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 5,4222024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,259 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 2.4 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $84,9172024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 86.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+52.3 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+23.2 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District Strafford 14, NH · twin score 96.4
presidential history
Party record book
New Hampshire State House District Strafford 15 · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
76.2%
875 votes · D+52.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 70.2%
Republican
William McKinley1896
59.5%
185 votes · R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 51.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
2,165votes
69.8% of the vote · D+41.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 2,098 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,101votes
33.7% of the vote · D+30.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 883 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+36.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+41.3 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · +34.3 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+17.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+23.2 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William H. Taft, 1912 · −2.5 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Strafford 15 posted a D+30.5 margin in the 2024 presidential race, placing it well outside the competitive range in a state otherwise known for razor-thin statewide contests.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 52.3 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 23.2 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 10.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 30.5 points.
A population of 5,422, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $84,917 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District Strafford 14 and State House District 132.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New Hampshire State House District Strafford 15. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/33815/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.