- Lead
- 1,291
- Total
- 25,308
- vs nation
- R+3.6
Idaho 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,305
- Total
- 26,445
- vs nation
- R+9.4
- Lead
- 3,088
- Total
- 21,519
- vs nation
- R+16.4
- Lead
- 3,388
- Total
- 19,919
- vs nation
- R+20.9
- Lead
- 2,346
- Total
- 19,625
- vs nation
- R+19.2
- Lead
- 4,963
- Total
- 16,996
- vs nation
- R+26.7
- Lead
- 4,483
- Total
- 13,623
- vs nation
- R+33.4
- Lead
- 2,745
- Total
- 12,919
- vs nation
- R+29.8
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+5.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 52,4752024 5-year
- Population density
- 3,916 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 13.4 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $83,4512024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 77.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+15.5 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50.5 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 45, UT · twin score 84.3
presidential history
Party record book
Idaho 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
57.8%
160 votes · D+15.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 54.6%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
74.9%
3,131 votes · R+50.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 74.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
12,104votes
45.8% of the vote · R+4.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 11,600 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
13,409votes
50.7% of the vote · R+4.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 12,891 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+21.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+15.5 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · −3.6 pts
Republican
Benjamin Harrison1892
+42.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+40.6 · U.S. D+1.7 · a third-party candidate carried the Place · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1968 · +41.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Its 2024 presidential margin of R+5.1 ranked among Idaho's closest, against R+12.0 in 2008. About 6,600 residents lived here, with White alone at 83.1% in the 2024 ACS 5-year.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 15.5 points in 1896 and a Republican high of 50.5 points in 1984. The 2024 margin was 5.1 points.
A population of 52,475, a 77% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $83,451 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 45 and State House District 20.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Idaho 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/16015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.