- Lead
- 96,434
- Total
- 264,965
- vs nation
- D+37.9
California 16th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 116,256
- Total
- 289,590
- vs nation
- D+35.7
- Lead
- 82,472
- Total
- 239,260
- vs nation
- D+32.4
- Lead
- 58,066
- Total
- 223,447
- vs nation
- D+22.1
- Lead
- 62,367
- Total
- 231,991
- vs nation
- D+19.6
- Lead
- 31,865
- Total
- 215,454
- vs nation
- D+17.2
- Lead
- 20,279
- Total
- 198,214
- vs nation
- D+9.7
- Lead
- 17,476
- Total
- 184,567
- vs nation
- D+0.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+36.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 515,6322024 5-year
- Population density
- 833 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 619 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $185,3682024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 50.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+40.1 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+69.1 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 23, CA · twin score 96.2
presidential history
Party record book
California 16th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
69.1%
199,974 votes · D+40.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 66.4%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
80.5%
22,420 votes · R+69.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1928 · 79.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
199,974votes
69.1% of the vote · D+40.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 176,002 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
114,576votes
60.9% of the vote · R+22.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 104,694 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+37.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+36.4 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +35.7 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1908
+54.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+64.2 · U.S. R+9.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · +51.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Anchored in the East Bay, this district recorded a 36.4-point Democratic presidential margin in 2024, reflecting a highly educated, diverse urban electorate that has voted reliably blue at every level for more than a decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.1 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 69.1 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.4 points.
A population of 515,632, a 51% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $185,368 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 23 and Legislative (House) District 41.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
California 16th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/06016/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.